Buffalo Sabres

Sabres sign Montador - 2years - $3.1 million

Well, the Sabres did slightly more than I expected the first day of free agency, signing Anaheim/Boston blue-liner Steve Montador. While far from a significant signing, it is a step in the right direction in he does bring additional toughness to the blue-line. Anyone that can crack the physical line-ups of the two clubs he was with last year should help the Sabres.

At the same time, the one UFA the Sabres might have considered bringing back, Jaroslav Spacek, signed with the Montreal Canadiens for 3-years at just under $4 million per.

I have little problem with either of these moves…yet. While Montador is a step down from Spacek, no-one can be thinking of him as a replacement on the offense, though he should provide 20-30 points per season. However, I don’t object to letting Spacek go. Changes need to be made, and I think that he was a disappointment for the money he was making. This, his third season, was the first he really started to contribute consistently. The shake-up needs to start somewhere, and this is as good a place as any.

My thought (or hope) is that Darcy is still trying to deal one of our other defenseman and replace him with someone that can help the power play as well as improve the defense. This may happen though, which makes our defense look like this:
Rivet - Butler
Lydman - Montidor
Tallinder - Sekera
Paetsch / Weber / Myers (Rookie)

This would not be an improvement over last season in my view. The problem is cap space; the Sabres are currently at $48 million with only 17 guys on the payroll. Without shuffling out Tallinder or Lydman, it is unlikely that the money will be available to bring another D-man in. An upgrade for one of those guys would keep me satisfied on the defensive side of the ice. Let’s see what happens over the next couple of weeks…I still expect more changes are on the way.

The draft, free agency, and other notes

OK, I say this every year, but the truth is unless you have a top 5 pick, the draft is all about the future, not about the now. That said, I am always curious about the first round, and I did watch it on Versus. No surprise, the Sabres didn’t make any moves, and signed Zach Kassian at #13. A good signing I guess, the team certainly could use some toughness…the problem is, they need that toughness now, not in 2-4 years when we would see this kid. But, they signed more size for a change.

The interesting move of the draft was of course the Pronger trade…though I hate Philly, he is a great fit for that team, and probably short term made them better. But trading 3 years worth of 1st rounders: ‘08, ‘09, and ‘10? (Four if you count Lupul, who was a 1st round pick himself.) Are the Flyers trying to become the Washington Redskins of the NHL, constantly buying over-the-hill free agents at the cost of young prospects? Especially if they don’t sign him past the year left on his contract. Plus, Philly is a team already in cap trouble, and their cap # just went up…are they going to be selling on the trade front?

Jay McKee just got bought out of his last year by St. Louis. I’m sure I’m not the only Sabres fan that would say this, but I would bring him back here in a second at the right price. (Say < $2.5 million.) He’s had some health issues the previous two year, but is not over-the-hill at 32. He would bring some additional intensity that this team sorely needs, even as a 5th D-man. Seeing as the team is unlikely to sign a true #1 or sign Spacek either, this really wouldn’t fix the Sabres biggest problems, though.

With free agency starting tonight, I expect to see a few jaw-dropping signings, but probably not as many as the last few years…the lack of trades at the draft tell me GMs are being very cautious this year. This is one place I agree with Darcy Regier…fixing your problems by overpaying for big names is not constructive. So, I don’t expect to see the Sabres sign anyone in the first 48 hours…if at all. (My fear is still a do-nothing off season - even if the claims are that it will be otherwise.)

SkierPete

Back to the Sabres - if I was GM

The playoffs are over with Pittsburgh deservedly winning the Stanley Cup. But for those of us NOT living in Pittsburgh, the most entertaining part of hockey’s summer is coming up. June and July brings the draft, free agency and the RFA signing period. A team like the Sabres, who barely missed the playoffs two years in a row, has the opportunity here to make the changes they need to make the playoffs and contend for a cup in 2010.

For once, I am having a hard time figuring exactly what GM Darcy Reiger is going to do this off-season. The signing of Tim Connolly in March convinced me that he is staying the course…committing to the team that is here. If we assume the off-season will follow several others, I would guess that he will make 1 or 2 minor trades, sign 1 minor UFA, and get his RFAs locked up. But, another year of more-of-the-same seems suicidal. Honestly, I can’t imagine that his job survives another missed playoff year…and his typical do-little plan does not seem to me the best course.

So, I thought I would play GM - if I was in Darcy Reiger’s shoes, this is what I would do…so first, let’s look at what they have:
15 players signed for next season, totaling about $46 Million in Cap Space. 2 goalies, 8 forwards, 5 D-men.
LW Thomas Vanek $6,400,000
G Ryan Miller $6,250,000
C Tim Connolly $4,500,000
RW Jason Pominville $4,500,000
LW Jochen Hecht $3,800,000
C Derek Roy $3,500,000
D Craig Rivet $3,500,000
D Henrik Tallinder $3,200,000
D Toni Lydman $3,175,000
C Paul Gaustad $2,500,000
LW Daniel Paille $1,350,000
D Nathan Paescht $1,050,000
G Patrick Lalime $1,000,000
RW Adam Mair $775,000
D Chris Butler $585,000

That’s about $46 million already tied up in signed players…not leaving a hell of a lot of room to manuever. Then, there are the unsigned names:
UFAs: Jaroslav Spacek(D), Maxim Afinogenov(RW), Teppo Numminen(D), Andrew Peters (LW)
RFAs: Drew Stafford, Andrej Sekera, Clarke MacArthur, Matt Ellis, Patrick Kaleta
Prospects possibly ready for NHL: Nathan Gerbe (C), Tim Kennedy (C), Mike Weber (D), Mark Mancari (RW), Tyler Myers (D)

While their is sufficient players in the system to field a team without any further additions, I would not be satisfied with this. This is what I think we need…those that have read me for a while know I do not usually name individual players I want to aquire, but more “types”, though I will sometimes refer to a specific player as an example of that type.

Needs:
A forward that can provide on/off ice leadership (2nd line quality).
A forward who is a physical presence and can play 2nd or 3rd line minutes.
A #1 defenseman.
A defenseman that can provide some offense and quarterback the power play.

Keepers - My full list of players that are “untouchable”:
Thomas Vanek, still a potential superstar.
Ryan Miller, obvious #1 goalie
Craig Rivet, solid and rare leader on team
Chris Butler, huge potential shown last year

UFAs - NONE of these guys would be back. Of the bunch, I might consider Spacek at the right price to fill my “offensive defenseman” role, but would rather get that another way.

RFAs - I would re-sign most of these guys, depending on how my other plans go.

Trades - Prior to the draft…I would look at some other teams that need the most help. I would let it be known that I want to try and package a # of players for a single player and pick (2nd round OK). This may appear to be a dumb move, but to me it would be more about clearing away some of the current deadwood and some cap space in order to make room for my #1 D-man. For example, I would package Stafford (as RFA), Lydman, and Paescht, for that tough vetran LW to provide leadership and a second round pick. Or Roy, Paille and Tallinder for a 2nd line Center that provides leadership. Even better, trade Tim Connoly and a couple of others for another 1st line center. Regardless of the trade, at least one of my mid-price blueliners in Tallinder or Lydman have to go. I would prefer to get rid of Tallinder, but neither player has me enamoured enough to care. In this trade, I would clear about $3-5 Million in additional cap space, and also clear 3 roster spots. For the sake of argument, let’s go with a most realistic possibility Roy (his salary makes the offer tempting to someone), Lydman, Paescht and 3rd round pick for a #2 center (leader-type), a physical left winger (3rd liner) and a second round pick, reducing cap space by $3 million in the process. (Current cap at $43 million.)

Note: I wish I could cut Patrick Lalime, and eat the $1 million. His performance as back-up was sub-par most of the time, and I would gladly pay an extra $1 million to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, my payroll won’t allow it, so I am stuck with him, hoping he won’t have to sub in more than necessary.

Free agency - Darcy Regier does not like signing in free agency, but to me it has its place. It is here that I would target a guy for my #1 D-man position, a guy that can also contribute a bit on the power play. This guy would be making in the $5-$5.5 million range, putting me at $48 million on the cap. The question is can I get someone here…I’m going to assume once we get past the initial 2-3 “superstars” I can get someone at this price. (There will NOT be as much money out there in Free Agency this year, and after the initial feeding frenzy, I think their will be some bargains out there.)

I’d then sign the rest of my RFAs, including Stafford for around $2.0 and the other guys for $0.5 to $1 each. Payroll of around $53 million, about $2 million more than last year, and $4 million under the cap.

With that, I essentially have my starting line-up:
Vanek-Connolly-Pomminville
Hecht-New Center-Stafford
New Winger-Gaustad-Paille
MacArthur-Mair-Kaleta
Spare: Gerbe, Ellis, Mancari

#1 D-man - Sekera
Rivet- Butler
Tallinder - Myers
7th: Weber

Miller - Lalime

In doing this, I brought in 4 new faces to my 23 man roster, not a whole-sale change, but some freshness. I may have sacrificed a little scoring with losing Derek Roy, but I made up for that somewhat my #1 D-man and hopefully my #2 center can make up the difference. I’ve gotten more physical and brought in some leadership. I’m still relying on Tim Connolly to remain healthy, as losing him leaves me really lean at center. (Darcy ham-strung me here with this re-signing during the season.) On D-fense I only have 3 vetrans…but 4 youngsters with a lot of potential. The fact is, I am not going to create a Stanley Cup winning team in one year from what I had…but my changes should be enough to get us into the playoffs and even win at least one round.

SO, what do you think? This is your chance to play GM…what would you want to do? Please try to give realistic suggestions.

The Coyotes move to Hamilton - as I see it

I’ve been hesitant to comment on the possibility of the Hamilton Blackberries (or whatever they will be called) taking up residence across the border, as it seemed a long-shot to me. ( I thought sure the judge would be loathe to step into this mess.) But, based on the outcome of Tuesday’s hearing, it seems to me that he will likely rule the Coyotes can be moved, as long as Balsillie is willing to pay the league enough money to do it. While how much money that is may still be up in the air, I don’t see him balking at anything upwards of $100 million US, as to get an expansion franchise in Hamilton would cartainly cost more than that. And the amount of money a Hamilton team would make would be huge.

But, what I’m here to talk about is this: what will the real impact on the Buffalo Sabres be?

Larry Quinn and the rest of Sabres management have been extremely quiet on this subject, though what has come out is mostly negative. Concern that 15 % of the season ticket base comes from our neighbors to the North, and roughly 20 % of total ticket revenue. A team like the Sabres, which does not have a big market to begin with, certainly could be hurt by this. And the Sabres will definitely argue that some sort of fee will be required to offset any losses that might occur.

Well, there is no doubt that we get a significant amount of fans coming from across the border, and I imagine the Sabres will take some sort of hit on that front. If this was 5 years ago, when the Sabres played to 2/3 empty houses, I would say it was a bigger concern. But with the current structure of having 14,000+ season ticket holders, I am not sure the addition would be that intrusive. I would even argue that potential rewards might offset the losses.

Why do fans in Southern Ontario come down to Buffalo rather than go to Toronto now? WEll, for some of them, it’s distance, if you live in Fort Erie or Welland, your 20 minutes from Buffalo, and for those people, nothing will likely change. For for many Canadian fans…it’s mainly the availability and price of tickets. Looking at this site, listing average ticket prices across the NHl, the average ticket price in Buffalo is $36.43, while in Toronto, it is $76.15, 109 % higher.

But here’s the rub, don’t for one second think that Jim Balsillie is bringing a team to Hamilton because he is kind and generous to Southern Ontario hockey fans…he sees $$$ as well. A team in Hamilton would obviously get much demand…and it has been said by many with little affect on Leafs revenue. Therefore, we can presume that ticket prices would be closer to those of the Leafs than the Sabres. And there is no doubt that he would have instant sellouts from the get-go.

So, if we assume that the prices are similar to the Leafs, and that Hamilton starts out in the Western Conference (likely at least for a year or two), how will that affect the HSBC attendance? The Sabres themselves state that 20 % of their revenue comes from cross-border traffic. These fans are made up of three groups:
1) Sabres fans:These fans will continue to come across the border.
2) Leafs fans: predominantly ones that can’t afford / get tickets in Toronto. With only 1 (at most) Leaf game in Hamilton, at similar prices to Toronto, these fans will continue to come to Buffalo for the games.
3) Fans of other teams/player/NHL in general: these are the fans most likely to be lost. If you are a Joe Thorton fan, and your guy comes twice a year without having to cross the border, you might not bother coming to Buffalo. And if you live in Hamilton, you certainly won’t want to travel to Buffalo, assuming you can get tickets locally. (Again, it’s quite possible that Hamilton tickets will be hard to come by.) But for Eastern Conference opponents…such as the Canadiens…Hamilton again will only have one at most game…the fans will still have to come to Buffalo to get their fix.

So, what percentage of Canadien fans fall into each of those categories. If we presume that 1/3 of revenue comes from each, and presume that the first two categories will remain largely unaffected, even if HALF the other fans stop coming, that’s a loss of about 3.8 % of the ticket base…still significant…but not necessarily irreplacable.

Not mentioned above are season ticket holders that live across the border. Those with deep pockets may choose to switch to Hamilton, depending on where across the border they live. (I know of at least 2 people that have season tickets to the Sabres JUST to go to the 3 Leafs games…they then sell all their other tickets.) However, again I would expect at least half those people to remain…simply because the price here will still pose a significant advantage to Hamilton.

So, now were talking the Sabres, potentially, could lose between 3 and 8 % of their ticket sales. However, that assumes that NO-ONE else would buy tickets to those games. This is clearly a silly statement. The variable pricing structure the Sabres now use is too brilliant to NOT sell out their season ticket prices. Season ticket holder get tickets for the games on average for 1/3 the individual ticket prices. As long as that pricing structure remains in place, season tickets will continue to sell out, whether to Canadiens or Americans. There may be some drop in individual ticket sales, especially to Western Conference opponents, but this drop will be minor compared to the big picture sales.

On the positive side for the Sabres will have another “Toronto” game every year where Hamilton comes to town. Another oppurtunity to jack the individual game ticket prices…and that game will certainly provide more income than a Pheonix Coyotes games. And if Hamilton eventually moved to the East…now that’s THREE extra big ticket games a year. And that would make up for a multiple of losses.

The biggest concern to the Sabres is probably the potential for increasing ticket prices. Canadiens tend to be willing to spend more for NHL Hockey than their Buffalonian counterparts, so in the long-term, there will certainly be revenue effects that would be seen. But how much this would be is almost impossible to say.

So, if I were the Sabres, privately I would not be THAT worried. But publicly, I would still use the move to my advantage…making sure to beg the NHL that Balsillie has to provide the team with some sort of payoff. Rather than a lump-sum payment, how about some sort of annual income fee? How about $3 million a year for the next 10 years? Or maybe 20? That’ll be a drop in the bucket on the eventual profit a Hamilton team will see.

So, I see the move to Hamilton as being a potential minor revenue hit, but could be an overall positive for the Sabres organization, especially if Hamilton eventually plays in the East. But for the Buffalo fan, this will help keep ticket prices down in Buffalo long-term for the Sabres to remain competitive. And there is certainly no threat to the Sabres, who are right now still considered a hot market by the NHL…there are certainly half a dozen markets that are of greater concern.

From the outside - 3rd round thoughts and final predictions

For how incredible the 2nd round match-ups were…the conference finals ended up to be quite a let-down. Carolina ended up showing there true colors and turned turtle against a vastly superior Piitsburgh team. I know I picked Carolina - my biggest pick regret. That’s what I get for basing it on one game! This series was the biggest bore unless you were a Pens fan…but I will say, I loved seeing Carolina get crushed. (Residual resentment from 2006 is all.)

The Detroit series was a little more interesting, as the Red Wings only blew out the Blackhawks twice instead of 3 times. However, as soon as Detroit won Game 2 in OT, I had no doubt they would win the series…was there any way the Blackhawks could take 4 out of 5 from Detroit, which is what it would’ve taken to win.

All said, I’m kind of sad that it is Detroit-Piitsburgh…it seems too familiar and predictable. As mentioned before, its been 32 years since two teams met back-to-back in the finals, but you almost feel like it could happen again next year. With a 10-4 record going into the last series, I have nothing to lose on my final pick. Though I picked Detroit last year, I think this years match-up may be a little closer. Detroit is banged up, and Pittsburgh has last year’s experience under their belt where there super-stars got their first Stanley Cup experience. The four games in six nights also give Pittsburgh a slight edge early on. When I am not sure, I usually look at goaltending, but in this case I really can’t favor one team over the other. In the end, though…both teams have a pretty good offensive talent, with the Pens having bigger stars but Detroit having a little more depth. But Detroit’s defense is superior to the Pens, and if they can manage to shut down Crosby and especially the red-hot Malkin. Piitsburgh has to jump out to an early lead in this series, a long series favors Detroit.

I’ve picked Detroit 3 times, and been right 3 times. In the end, I have to go with my gut, Detroit’s got one of the best all-around teams I’ve ever seen. They handled two of their opponents easily…the third, Anaheim, may have been the second best team in the playoffs, and they beat them too. I am going to pick Detroit again. (But wouldn’t it be ironic if Marian Hossa lost with Pittsburgh last year, wouldn’t sign with them to go Detroit, and lost with Detroit this year? Talk about bad timing.)

From the Outside - 2nd round reflections and 3rd round predictions

Wow, what a great round of playoff hockey! Three series went to seventh games, and all four were (generally) great series. Plus, I went 3-1 on the prediction front, for a 9-3 overall record going into the final two rounds.

But when I was wrong, boy was I wrong! The Hurricanes were more than up to the challenge of the Bruins. The early season Bruins were nearly unbeatable, and the way they man-handled the Habs I assumed they were back at their stride. The fact is, Carolina is playing with skill and passion, and totally deserved to win that series. It IS funny that the Bruins smothered Carolina in their 3 wins, only allowing 2 goals, yet couldn’t make it 4.

The Pittsburgh-Washington series was the one I saw the most of, watching a couple of full games, and the ends of many of the others. Sabres management often claims that the league has tightened up approaching pre-lockout days, but I would say to them…”You’re wrong, and this series is example 1. You just don’t have the talent you did 2-3 years ago.” When you get two offensively talented teams together like that, great, exciting hockey comes out. It’s too bad the series ended with a stinker. In the end, I said goaltending would be the difference, and I think it was. That, and I think the Caps started to run out of gas towards the end of this series.

Out West, Detroit managed to eek out past the Ducks. As expected, I didn’t get to watch nearly as much of this series as I would’ve liked. I heard some (slight) complaining about the game-winner, but I watched it, and I don’t think Hiller really ever had it frozen, and therefore there is nothing to complain about…and being from Buffalo, I know about series ending goals.

Chicago handled Vancouver the easiest of the bunch, and though I picked this series right, I won’t pretend to have know enough to analyze it. I am still hugely impressed by how far Chicago has come in the last two seasons.

So, the stories wind up, and a new set begins - Round 3. Each round, to me, gets harder to pick, as any team that makes it this far is playing extremely well to get here.

Pittsburgh (#4) versus Carolina (#6): It’s telling that these were the two hottest teams in the East for the last two months of the regular season, with both teams on the outside looking in at mid-February. Yet here they are playing into the end of May. This is a really tough pick for me. Pittsburgh was 2-1-1 against Carolina, though they lost the last two they played. On paper you would say Pittsburgh is the better team, with Crosby obviously playing at the top of his game in the last series. But Carolina is keeping in the mix, they have only 4 players with 3 or more goals compared to Pittsburgh’s six, but (Eric) Staal has nine goals in the first two rounds, which is nothing to sneeze at and Jokinnen has been clutch. The big difference might be in goaltending, though, where Cam Ward has the highest save % of the remaining goalies, 0.927 versus Fleury’s .901. Now that may be a function of opponent as well, but Boston was one of the top offensive teams in the league. My feeling is if Pittsburgh can’t make quick work of Carolina, then this series is going to swing in the Hurricanes favor. I am going to pick the ‘Canes to go to the Stanley Cup again this year. (It hurts me to say that, too - I still hold ill will towards Carolina for stopping our “Team of Destiny” 3 years ago.)

Detroit Red Wings (#2) versus Chicago Blackhawks (#4)
Both teams were 3-2-1 in the season series, with Chicago winning the last two games of the season when they were meaningless games to Detroit. Chicago has the offense to keep up with Detroit’s firepower, and has eight players with 9 or more points, the most of the four teams left. But there is no doubt that Detroit has the ability to score as well, and even though they played the 7th and 8th seed, they had the hardest test of the two in the Ducks. Detroit however, is superior in defense and probably superior in goal. Osgood gets a lot of criticism saying that he is not that good, and that its all the Detroit system, but the guy has a 0.921 save percentage. Playoff experience counts for something and outside of their goaltender, the Blackhawks have very little. I stated last round that whichever of the Ducks/Red Wings made it to the conference finals I would pick that team to go to the cup finals, and I am sticking by that. Detroit wins this series in less than seven games.

So, there you go, I guess I am picking Carolina vs Detroit for the Stanley cup finals. (Another reason to pick Carolina, when’s the last time the same two teams met two years in a row…the answer ‘76 & ‘77, the Montreal Canadiens versus the Boston Bruins, back when there were only 18 teams. And to save you looking it up, the Habs won both times.)

Sabres ink Tyler Myers to 3-year deal

OK, Steve at the Leafs blog beat me to it, but the Sabres yesterday signed Tyler Myers to a 3-year entry deal. This right after he was named playoff MVP for the Kelowna Rockets. The 19-year old has had an awesome season in Juniors, and is no doubt ready to move beyong that. He is HUGE (we’re talking 6′8″) and skates well too. None of this is breaking news, but here’s a few things you MAY not have thought about:

1) At 19, he cannot be shipped to the AHL, he either has to play for the Sabres, or for his Junior team.
2) The Sabres CAN audition him in the NHL for 10 games before sending him to his Junior team. There is no doubt in my mind this WILL happen. The Sabres defense is so-so. They need size, they need hitting ability, and they need someone that can provide some scoring ability.
3) While not 100% certain, I believe the Sabres will line things up so that Myers ends up staying with the team this season. Having Myers on their radar makes the shipping out of a defenseman (Tallinder, Lydman, Paestch, Sekera) all the more likely. I don’t include Butler or Rivet in there, because they are the two that I wouldn’t touch right now. Perhaps clearing Tallinder or Lydman would give the Sabres the funds to resign Spacek or another comparable D-man.
4) Don’t get me wrong, this is a long way from being certain, but this kid has the potential to be an NHL #1 defenseman that the Sabres so desparately need. That’s a few years off, but there’s no doubt he has the most untapped potential of any of the Sabres prospects. I hope Rivet takes him under his wing, he would be a perfect role model.

Darcy Reiger gets a lot of criticism from fans, and rightly so, but trading up last year to get Myers was a stellar move.

1st round reflections and 2nd round predictions

Not to brag, but…4-0 in my Eastern Conference Predictions! (OK, that’s bragging.) But, hey, what a night last night! Not one, but two Game 7s, and both decided late in the game. Too bad you couldn’t watch them both without center ice in the US. I watched the whole Caps vs Rangers game and thoroughly enjoyed it. The Caps came out looking tight and couldn’t get anything going early on, but slowly took over the game. The Versus announcers kept going on about how good the Rangers were playing defensively, even when they were no longer doing so. But with a 1-1 tie going towards the end of the game, I kept thinking: “Oh, it’s all Capitals, so the Rangers will score some stupid fluke goal and come out on top.” But, then Federov came down the right side and ended it.

Another stupid thing the announcers kept repeating how Lundqvist was again beaten high glove side on that last shot…but how perfectly placed was that shot! It was a true beauty. Then you expect the Rangers to go on the offensive, but they couldn’t turn it on. They didn’t even get to pull their goaltender. And the Rangers finally fell due to what I’ve been thinking all year would be their downfall, and inability to manufacture offense.

I was stuck watching game highlights of the Carolina / NJ game on Versus like most of America, but what a shocker. NJ not only blew the lead but lost the game in less than a minute. Brodeur again showed how fallible he is in the playoffs of late. I will agree that Marty Brodeur is one of the greatest goaltenders of all time, but the last few years he has failed the Devils when they needed him most, in the playoffs. (Carolina won Game 4 with <1 second left also.) Give lots of credit to Carolina - they are continuing their effort from the end of the season.

So, I went 6-2 in the first round, and 4-0 in the East, where I admittedly knew the teams much better. I’m going to try and keep it going with the second round. Here’s my picks:

Eastern Conference
Boston Bruins (#1) vs Carolina Hurricanes (#6)
Sorry ‘Canes fans, I see this as too lopsided a match-up. The Bruins have everything on the Hurricanes, Offense, Defense, Goaltending, Special Teams. They must have been thrilled when Carolina won that series and they didn’t have to match-up with Piitsburgh. The Bruins are 4-0 in the season series, outscoring Carolina 18-4. Now, all those games were before the ‘Canes went on their late-season tear, but I think the Bruins are just too good for them. Their best hope is the Bruins come out soft after a 9-day layoff, but typically a team that played an easy series comes out and creams a team that played a long, emotional 7-game series. I don’t think the Bruins will sweep them, but it surprise me if this series goes past 6 games. Bruins all the way.

Washington Capitals (#2) versus Pittsburgh Penguins (#4)
Gosh, do you think the NHL and Versus/NBC are salivating over this matchup? Truthfully, it should be a pretty good series even without the hype, with a great likelihood of lots of scoring and lots of skating. Caps won the season series, 3-0-1, but the biggest question mark in this series is the Washington goaltending. It’s a lot different job shutting down Pittsburgh than it is the NY Rangers. Can Varlamov continue to come up big for the Washington? If he doesn’t, do you go back to Theodore? For that reason alone, I am going to pick the Pittsburgh Penguins in this series. But in truth, I’ll be rooting for AO and the Caps.

Western Coference
Detroit Red Wings (#2) versus Anaheim Ducks (#8)
This is the series that FANS should be salivating for…the last two Stanley Cup winners face off. Won team played great down the stretch and knocked off the President’s Trophy winners fairly handily. The other team was barely tested in the first round, but is well rested and raring to go. Detroit leads the season series 3-0-1. Hiller played some fantastic hockey in the series, who gradually took over the goaltending spot from JS Giguere. I want to say right now whichever of these two teams makes it out of this round is the team I’ll be picking to go to the Stanley Cup finals. I considered just picking the Ducks because that way if I am right, I’ll look brilliant. But the fact is, I think that Detroit will win this battle, though I won’t be surprised if it goes to seven games. I only hope I can see some of the games.

Vancouver Canucks (#3) versus Chicago Blackhawks (#4)
The two teams left that I probably know the least about. Chicago is still a young team, but they are playing very well together. Vancouver has Roberto Luongo, two Sedins and a Sundin. The season series went 2-2, so not even much to learn there, though Vancouver won the last two in blow-outs. In a case like this where I don’t have a strong feeling, I go with my gut, and my gut says Chicago.

1st round predictions - a view from the outside - Part II

Well, four matches are decided, with four coming down to game 6 or 7. So far, I am 4-0 in my predictions, with the matches I didn’t think would be close (Detroit and Boston) going in my favor. Philly ended up giving the Pens a little bit of trouble, but really a fairly easy win for the Pens. That one was a great series, too. The fourth match-up with Vancouver I could have gone either way, but certainly called that one right.

With four to go, what do I think now of my original picks:

Washington vs NY Rangers - I picked the Caps, and while I will admit that the Rangers have been a lot more effective than I thought, I did think this series would go long with the Rangers superior defence. With one game to go, this series really could go either way. By the fact that Washington has won 3 of the last 4, I gotta think I would stick with my pick at this stage. I always say that in hockey playoffs, the better team always wins. The exception is a game 7; if they get that far, they are pretty even anayways, and at that point, it can go either way.

NJ vs Carolina - One of my upset picks, I picked Carolina in this series, and they are certainly staying in there with the two teams alternating wins. Carolina has yet to go ahead in the series, though, and in a one game playoff, I would give a slight advantage to the Devils.

San Jose vs Anaheim - A lot in the press about Joe Thorton’s no-show…why is anyone surprised at this? For his regular season stats, he is just about the biggest playoff bust of all time, why would anything change now. As I said originally, San Jose got as unlucky as could be with this match-up…but if you are the President’s Trophy winner, you gotta get the job done, and they are not doing it. (Understand, I haven’t seen any of these games, just from what I read.) I see the Ducks wrapping this up tonight.

Chicago vs Calgary - A good friend said this has been a great series, I again have seen very little, but it doesn’t surprise me…usually 4 vs 5 is a great series. The home team has won every game so far…not a surprise with Calgary in the mix. Does it continue through Game 7? I think there is a very real possibility.

So, we’ll see how the rest goes…to think we could get 4 game sevens in the first round alone. I’ll be watching intently on Tuesday!

Reiger and Ruff retained by Sabres

In a move that surprised no-one with any level of awareness of the Buffalo Sabres, Managing partner Larry Quinn announced that GM Darcy Reiger and Coach Lindy Ruff would be retained for the upcoming season.

Personally, I am OK with this move, for now. There’s no denying that it is nice to see a team retain there coaching staff for more than 1/2 a season. Coaches frequently get fired because changing the coach is easier than changing the players. Sometimes it’s effective (see Pittsburgh this season, and to some extent Ottawa), while most of the time it doesn’t make much difference (see NJ in prior years, Montreal, NY Rangers, & Tampa Bay this season).

First off, Lindy Ruff is probably one of the top 5 coaches in the league, and I have a hard time thinking that it would ever make sense to fire him. There were times this year where it seemed he was getting poor efforts out of his players, but again, I strongly believe this is a problem with the make-up of the team, NOT the coaching staff. Lindy Ruff leaving would not be the end of the world, but it is unlikely that any replacement would be an upgrade.

Now the player problems fall squarely on the shoulders of the GM, Darcy Regier. And it’s not like he’s has any excuse in terms of money. While the Sabres may not be pushing the upper envelope of the salary cap, they certainly have not been hampered in terms of spending, being most years above the 50% mark of the salary cap range. I still hold management 100% responsible for the Drury/Briere debacle that still haunts this team 2 years later, and still feel Darcy Reiger should have lost his job after that move.

BUT, if you don’t fire him for that, I don’t see you firing him for this past season. He made moves last summer that both made hockey sense and were popular with the fans. He brought in Craig Rivet, a proven leader and grit guy. He retained players (Pomminville, Miller, Gaustad) that he thought would provide the future of this team, all signings that the fans got behind.

Even by the end of January, it seemed like things were working out. The Sabres had gotten it together, were in the 6th - 8th seed spot, and seemed like they were ready to make a move. Suddenly, Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller went down, and at the same time, the offense disappeared. The team has shown a distinct lack of on-ice leadership that has been on-going for two years. Reiger may have felt that certain players would step up and fill that void, and they just haven’t.

But, at this point, Reiger’s job should be on the line. He has an obvious problem on this team, a lack of leadership and accountability. Players to fill this void are necessarily easy to come by, but they at least usually aren’t expensive. My feeling is 3-4 of the right moves on this team could bring them back to contender status. He should be told…OK, for the first time since owner Tom Golisano came in, your job is on the line here. You need to get this team back in the playoffs in 2010. Anything less is unacceptable.

I wonder if this message has already been given. Many fans complained about the signing of Tim Connolly at the trade deadline as Reiger again going with the familiar and safe. But to me, signing Tim Connolly was a huge risk / reward situation. If the guy stays healthy, his presence along with Roy, Vanek, Pominville (assuming the early season this year was just a rough patch) gives you some solid offensive punch, and Regier comes off as shrewd to get him to sign that deal…because face it, a healthy Tim Connolly is a point-per-game guy, and worth a hell of a lot more than $4.5 million a year. But if he goes down to injury yet again, Regier will look like a fool for signing him yet again.

Besides, if Darcy Regier is let go, Lindy Ruff is almost certain to be out the door, too. Any decent GM coming in after a GM that’s been here 10 years will certainly want his own people, and that will include the head coach.

So, I’m willing to give Darcy Regier one more off-season. The needs and shortcomings of this team seem clearer than ever, even though they don’t appear to be that far away from the playoffs. If Regier keeps the team static (or near static) through the off-season, then he is blind and should be fired. If he makes the necessary changes, then I think the team makes it into the playoff picture, and he deservedly keeps his job.

I know the playoffs are in full swing…but Sabres fans out there…what do you think? Should Darcy Regier be given one more chance?