Buffalo Sabres

Cost of success

The summer doldrums are here…the season is still almost two months away, and the excitement of free agency is far in the rearview mirror. So I thought this would be a good time to do a little thought experiment. But first, a refresher:

The year coming out of the lockout was the most exciting one I’ve ever experienced being a sports fan. Not only had the NHL come back looking faster and more exciting, but the team I was rooting for looked not just good but amazing. I remember saying to myself even before that wonderful playoff run “This is a team that we as fans will look back at a wonder - how did so much talent all fall onto the same team.” In a way, they reminded me of the early ’80s Oilers - fast, mobile and unstoppable with an almost ridiculous depth of talent. At the time, I hoped that we could get 3 or 4 years of them together before they got split up. As it turned out for all the credit Sabres Darcy Reiger and Larry Quinn were given with anticipating the direction of the league they did not anticipate well enough to sign any of their guys to long term contracts. The summer of 2006 saw 12 players head towards arbitration and resulted in the loss of Jay McKee and Mike Grier to FA and JP Dumont to cap realities. Another successful year resulted in an even worse summer 2007 where both teams leaders - Briere and Drury - were lost to free agency, again due to the Sabres mismanagement of the situation. A third leader - Teppo Numminen, went down before the season started. And Campbell was traded away to prevent a fourth unrequited defection this summer.

Therefore, we sit here in the summer of 2008 with only 15of the 24 primary players on that 05-06 team still in gold and blue. But, I thought it would be fun and informative to look at that 05-06 team and the salaries the players were making and see what the team cost would be for next season had they signed for the same money in Buffalo. (For non-fans of the Sabres, I put a * next to players who are still currently on the roster.)

Name ———— 2005 salary ——- 2008 salary —- % Increase
Thomas Vanek* — $942,400 ——– $8,000,000 ——- 749%
Daniel Briere —— $1,930,000 ——- $8,000,000 ——315%
Brian Campbell —– $459,800 ——– $7,100,000 ——1444%
Chris Drury ——– $2,926,000 ——- $7,100,000 —– 143%
J.P. Dumont ——- $1,596,000 ——- $4,000,000 —– 151%
Jay McKee ——— $1,600,000 —— $4,000,000 —– 150%
Jochen Hecht* —– $1,900,000 —— $3,800,000 ——100%
Maxim Afinogenov* - $1,086,000 —— $3,500,000 —— 222%
Derek Roy* ——— $782,000 ——– $3,500,000 —– 348%
Martin Biron ——– $2,128,000 ——- $3,500,000 —– 64%
Ryan Miller* ——– $501,600 ——– $3,500,000 ——- 598%
Tim Connolly* —— $1,036,900 ——- $3,500,000 —— 238%
Toni Lydman* —— $1,900,000 ——- $3,150,000 —— 66%
Henrik Tallinder* — $591,800 ——— $2,900,000 —— 390%
Ales Kotalik* ——- $837,900 ——— $2,500,000 —— 198%
Dmitri Kalinin —— $1,330,000 ——- $2,100,000 ——- 58%
Mike Grier ——— $1,364,400 ——- $1,775,000 —— 30%
Paul Gaustad* —– $501,600 ——— $1,700,000 —– 239%
Taylor Pyatt ——- $989,720 ——— $1,575,000 —- 59%
Jason Pominville* — $450,000 ———- $1,375,000 —- 206%
Adam Mair* ——- $450,000 ———- $750,000 —— 67%
Juri Novotny —— $500,000 ———- $750,000 —— 50%
Andrew Peters* — $450,000 ———- $500,000 —— 11%
Teppo Numminen — $2,000,000 ——– $1,100,000 —— (-45%)

Totals ———– $28,254,120 ——– $79,675,000 —182%

First off - wholly cow! A cumulative salary increase of 182% with a total price-tag of $78.6 million. I also calculated the current cap hit of this theoretical team and came up with $75.4 million, making this fantasy Sabres team $19 million over the cap. As a reminder, the 05-06 salary cap was $39 million and is currently $56.1 million, which is an overall increase of 44 % in three years - pretty hefty, huh? I wish I had a 44 % raise in the last three years. But 182 % is incredible - this means the average Sabres salary has increased by four times the league average!

How about this: in 05-06 there were no players out of 24 on the team making over $3 million and only three at $2 million and above (Drury, Teppo & Biron). There are now thirteen players making upwards of $3 million and 16 above $2 million. This will increase to 18 next year with Pomminville and Gaustad.

Of the top six players on that list, only one is still a Sabre - Thomas Vanek. (Miller will move into that group next year, but this year is still only at $3.5 million.) This highlights that the Sabres are either fiscally responsible or terribly cheap - truth is its a little of both.

Brian Campbell had the biggest pay increase by far at 1444% in 3 years. By no coincidence, he is my pick for the most overpaid player on the list relative to his worth. Second to him would be Chris Drury - who while a favorite player of mine is not a $7 million hockey player. Third would be Vanek - though his price tag drops to a more in line $6.4 million a year next season which is not a bad price to pay for a potential 40 goal scorer. Of those top 4 - Briere is the one probably most worth the top coin a little over Vanek only because he brings leadership to your team. Best current value - Jason Pomminville - though not for much longer!

So, what should all this tell you? That while the Sabres put together a team coming out of the lockout that was well built for the style of play - management did not successfully estimate the abilities of the team (definitely their fault) or the subsequent rise in salaries (not so much their fault). Most of the players in 05-06 had 1 year contracts…the UFA agents in the next two off-seasons all drifted away for big raises. Imagine had the Sabres locked up their core back then, what might yet have been?

Ah well, I still like a lot of what has happened with this team - there are still a dozen key players from that team still with the Sabres. In addition there is Spacek and Rivet add veteran defense leadership, and young guns like Stafford, Paille and Sekera rounding out the roster. I keep coming back to the same thing - I really like the team make up and I think that this team will come out this year and surprise a lot of people…maybe not to the point that they did in 05-06, but they will hopefully remind people of some of that teams greatness.

You will probably not hear from me again until September as I will be traveling through the end of August. Then, I will look back at the Sabres off-season and compare what I predicted would happen with what actually happened. (Hint: I was pretty darn close!)

Numminen!

Well, Darcy is at it again…the Sabres have re-signed Teppo Numminen to a 1-year deal, this time at the bargain price of $1.1 million. This will (sort of) be Numminen’s fourth year with the team - he came to Buffalo in 05-06 right after the lock-out. He provided some great leadership and some pretty solid defensive play. In 06-07 he was a little more up and down, but he was greatly missed last year when he lost the season (except the final game) due to heart surgery. He is now 40 years old, and unlikely to give the team large minutes on a regular basis, but I for one am glad he is back. I am pleased at the price, considering he was supposed to get $2.7 million last year. He was “suspended” when his health situation was revealed, and was not paid his salary last year. His appeal of the suspension was still in process, and I have heard that part of this contract was a settlement of that appeal. My guess is he received some sort of compensation for last season as well for taking the pay cut this year, but honestly a 40-year old coming off not playing a year was probably not going to get a hard look anywhere else.

The Sabres D is actually in solid shape. With the addition of Rivet, there is Spacek, Tallinder and Lydman, a solid front four. Numminen will add some vetran leadership for the youngsters, particularly Sekera and Paescht (who floundered last year with Teppo’s influence) Weber, who looked ready for the NHL in a few games last season, will undoubtably start this season in Portland, but will be called up before winter turns to spring when the injury bug takes root. With some young talent still in the AHL, the Sabres are well-set for when Spacek goes after this season (A prediction on my part - but I’m right more than I am wrong.)

Now, get that Pommenville extension done!!!!

Sabres sign Miller and other quick hits

Wow! Color me impressed! Not that the signing happened, but that it happened this fast. Ryan Miller signed for a 5-year extension at $6.25 million per. The money was not surprising either…probably a little more than he deserved, I thought he should be closer to Huet than Lundqvist. But honestly, the Sabres front office needed to get this done. With the Briere / Drury / Campbell problems of the last year, there is serious concerned that the Sabres will get a reputation for not wanting to sign their stars players for big money. {I don’t beleive this is the case, they just played the Drury / Briere thing completely wrong, and Campbell they did not think was worth the money.} But they COULD NOT afford to go into the season with “Will they sign Miller?” hanging over them. It was to Miller’s advantage to sign a deal, too. He had a bad year, and another bad year would taint him towards getting a “big” contract here or elsewhere.

Interestly, according to GM Darcy Reiger, the Sabres wanted to sign him to more than 5-years, but it was Miller that wanted that limit. I would have pegged 5 years as the perfect length from managements standpoint. Gives them a few more years to ensure is the all-time goalie they hope he is. After 2 years with Lalime as backup, they bring in Enroth from Rochester and start seeing what they got with him.

Anyways it’s a good deal all around, and I am a happy fan!

Quick hits:

Sabres lock up Paille (2-years - $2.25 million). Good signing, but not high kudos, Paille was an RFA without arbitration rights. I would have liked to see 3 - $3.75 but this is OK - i think Paille could someday be a solid 2nd line winger, and that might be by 09-10.

Mancari and MacArthur sign QO. No surprise here either - but was is interesting is the Sabres have all of their RFAs and prospects signed to contracts now for the upcoming season.

The 08-09 Schedule. Man, I was looking forward to seeing this, but when it comes out all I can think is…eh? I don’t know what I was expecting to think. First impressions are a pretty evenly distributed schedule, most games in a month is 14. January will be brutal with three roads trips - one mid-west, one Florida and one west coast all in a row. Two games against Detroit and Anaheim is a little mean, too. (Any other eastern team have to play BOTH 2008 and 2007 champs twice…I doubt it.) Makes me chomp at the bit for October, good thing the off-season gives us nice weather.

One down one to go: Jason Pomminville is the other player that needs to be extended. He is a future consistant 30-goal scorer and his value will only go up as time passes….the Sabres have one advantage here that they didn’t with Miller in that he is a restricted free agent…if they can’t get him at a price they want, they can always wait and see what the market bears, as it is quite likely he would get an offer sheet….this risk backfired somewhat with Vanek, though, in that they are paying through the nose for TV. Also, sign Pommers and suddenly the Sabres look like “the team that keeps their core happy” with Tallinder, Lydman, Vanek, Roy, Hecht, Miller and Pommenville all getting 4+ year deals. If Jason can be had for in the same range as Miller, I say sign him up!

A little more D please: I would still like to see a little more added to the defense. Rivet was a great signing, but one more would be good…they are still a little thin a defensive depth (7 right now - but what’s in the minors when the injury bug hits) and still have excess forwards with Gerber waiting in the wings. One more good move here could have me saying “cup contender”. I think something will happen, but not as much as I would like.

Until Next Time….

Thumbs down on “improved” hockey schedule

The NHL schedule for 2008-2009 comes out on July 16th, but I already know that I don’t like it. Why’s that? The NHL revamped the schedule coming out of the lockout to increase the # of intra-divisional rivalry games, so for the last three years, teams have been playing eight games per season within their own division. The loss was at the expense of inter-conference play, with only 10 games on the schedule each season for east vs west play. The result has been commonly derided as (1) reducing travel for eastern conference teams only and (2) preventing the west conference fans from seeing Crosby / Malkin / Ovechkin only once every three years.

Now, I can’t disagree with that, 10 inter-conference games is not enough. But the way they are increasing these games is by eliminating those extra divisional games, dropping the schedule back to the way it was before. I personally loved having those 8 games against the division. It built real rivalries across the season, made the individual opponents more exciting to watch. Winning the division really *meant* something.

But with the schedule the way it is now, using a Northest Division as an example, you are going to have the following:

Northeast division: 4 teams x 6 games = 24 games (29.3 %)
Atlantic division = 5 teams x 4 games = 20 games (24.3 %)
Southeast division = 5 teams x 4 games = 20 games (24.3 %)
Western Conference = 18 games (22 %)

So my team will play four whole more games against its own division than against the other divisions. There sixteen more games outside the division than in the division. Really makes that divisional crown an acheivement, huh? You think that this season the Southeast teams were barely able to put one team with enough points to be considered a playoff team, wait until this structure.

And what’s with playing 18 games against the western conference. Eighteen? Really? That can only mean divisional foes won’t even play the same opponents…this just seems stupid to me.

So what’s the solution? Not the NHLPA’s suggestion that they add 2 games and have a 2-games per season with every team in the league - 30 inter-conference games is too much for me…sorry folks, no more games in the season..it’s too long as it is. Another suggestion I’ve seen is going back to the two division system, but with 30 teams in the league this would make for unbalanced divisions or force additional expansion…which we do NOT need.

Here’s my solution, simple yet elegant: let’s drop the number of games with the OTHER divisions in our own conference to three games. Who says that we need equal number of home and away games each year against these teams? In my plan the schedule would look like this:

Northeast division: 4 teams x 8 games = 32 games (39 %)
Atlantic division = 5 teams x 3 games = 15 games (18 %)
Southeast division = 5 teams x 3 games = 15 games (18 %)
Western Conference = 20 games (22 %)

Now - you play just over half your conference games against your own division. You still get the 8 rivalry games while boosting the inter-conference games. Each Northeast team would play an extra home game against the Atlantic in 2009-2010 and an extra away game against the Southeast and then the next season that would reverse. Yet all the teams in the same division would have matching schedules. Meanwhile, 20 games against the West allows you to play 10 teams (2 divisions) each year at home. Therefore, every team would come through your arena 2 out of every 3 years. It seems like a near-perfect compromise to me.

Now if only someone could convince the powers that be to read this…

What do you think? Do you have a better idea than this? Or do you like the new schedule better? Post your comments.

Sabres free agency - Bernier we hardly knew ye.

I knew that Darcy Reiger and the Sabres were not going to move quickly nor frequently after the start of free agency. Five days in and a total of three moves - one signing and two trades took place.

1) On July 1st, signed Patrick Lalime (G) to a 2 year deal at $1 million per year. A decent move, I would have preferred Alex Auld, who instead went to Ottawa at the same price, but I think they didn’t want anyone that would be threatening to Ryan Miller while trying to extend his deal…Lalime is a good choice, as he has proved his ability to play in the NHL, though he is unlikely to ever make it as a starter again. For the 15-20 games the Sabres will hopefully need him, he works for me.

2) Steve Bernier to Vancouver for 3rd round 2009 (actually LAs pick) and 2nd round 2010. I saw this move, and like most of the Sabres fan-base I thought “WHAT!”. This trade made little sense without….

3) …Craig Rivet from San Jose for Sabres 2nd round picks in 2009 and 2010, which was obviously in the works before the Bernier trade. Rivet was excess baggage for a Sharks team that had aquired both Boyle and Blake to bolster there blue-line. (Alliteration alert!)

Combine all this with the trade deadline deal that sent Campbell to San Jose the Sabres got Craig Rivet and a 1st(Tyler Ennis) and 3rd(2009) round draft pick in exchange for Brian Campbell (who they were going to lose anyways) and one 2nd(2009).

The Sharks on the other hand give up Craig Rivet, Steve Bernier and a 1st round pick for - well two 2nd round picks - seeing as Campbell didn’t give them much but a month and a half of excitement. I think the Sabres won that trade before Rivet laces up his skates.

How about Bernier for Rivet? Well, trading Bernier was a bit disappointing, as we didn’t even get to see much of him. Honestly, I didn’t mind the loss. He was acquired for his size and physicallity, not scoring ability…but it the 20 or so games he played, I didn’t observe him being very physical either. We had excess wingers - and trading one was a perfect remedy to clear some space.

Rivet is to me a close to ideal pick-up. The Sabres needed some veteran leadership, a D-man unafraid to bang bodies, and support on the PK and PP, and they got all three with Rivet. He has three years left on a deal that seems very reasonable in the current free agent market. When you look at the swap Rivet for Campbell - you get better defensive work with less offensive input - but at half the price.

Why do I say “close to ideal”? - The Sabres really need a #1 defenseman, and I am not sure that Rivet fills that role. It seems to me they now have 4 guys that would work as #2s, but no #1s. I suppose there are worse places to be than that - but one can dream, huh?

Another thing this trade told me - as I suspected there is no interest around the league right now for Maxim Afinogenov. Darcy clearly hinted that he was on the block, so when Bernier went instead, it came as a surprise…my guess is they could not get what they wanted from Max, but Vancouver gave them a fair enough offer for Bernier that they jumped at it. As I’ve stated previously, Max will be given a chance to re-prove himself this season. My hope would be a fast start on his part will result in shipping him off elsewhere…it is unlikely he will be in a Sabres uniform in 09-10.

A couple final comments:
- Sabres are close to their target pay-roll with only significant name left to get under contract being Dan Paille.
- I would still like to see another veteran blue-liner on the team - but I think that is unlikely unless Teppo Numminen halves last years salary.
- Good luck Blackhawks: Campbell isn’t worth $5 million - never mind $7 million and you will find that out soon enough. I’m glad for Brian though - as I think he is a geniuine good guy.
- Red Wings = Yankees - how can you not start to hate those guys?
- Darcy - Get Pommenville and Miller under long-term contract by October and you will have at least one happy fan.

What do you think? Are you happy with the Sabres moves…or is it not enough to bring a tenth place team back into the playoff hunt? Post your comments!!!!

Gaustad signs 4-year $9.2 million

Yup, you heard that right…at least according to TSN. The Sabres 3rd line center and occasional power play guy just signed a deal for an average of $2.3 million per season. All I can say is….EEK! There’s a lot of money out there right now, and the salaries are going crazy. I was thinking Goose would be fetching in the $1.5 per annum range. I wanted to get my initial impression down right away, and that is shock…I’m glad he signed. I like the guy a lot, he’s tough and he’s always giving his all, but for his size he is not particularly physical, and he is not gonna give you much scoring punch…Darcy, Larry and the gang must think he still has some upside…either that or they think contracts are going to get waaaaayyy out of hand very soon.

I must say, I didn’t think there would be any Sabres news in the first day of free agency, I don’t think they will make a big move. But this is pretty big news. What are Paille and Bernier going to get? And will there be room for that much needed D-man? Stay tuned!

A Tale of Two Tylers - Sabres 2008 Draft

I wish I could say I find the NHL Draft interesting to watch…but I can’t. Unless you were a Pheonix Coyotes fan, there wasn’t much to get excited about. Those that hoped the Sabres would trade away some-one (*Cough*MAX*cough*) on draft day were disappointed.

The Sabres held two first-round draft picks thanks to San Jose, which made things a little more interesting. (Note to Sharks: How’s that Campbell deal goin’?) In an odd move, the Sabres traded up ONE position to get the guy they wanted. I wonder how that conversation went:

Lombardi (Kings GM): So, uh, Darcy, who do you want at #13?
Reiger (Sabres GM): Well Dean, we really like that Meyers kid…what about you guys?
Lombardi: Oh….we’re looking at Teub…uh…I mean…hey…we like that Meyers kid too!
Reiger: Oh…well, gosh…hmmmm….I guess we’ll have to go get someone else.
Lombardi: yeah…too bad huh? (Pause) Hey…here’s an idea….ya know, if you’d be willing to give us something, maybe we could, ya know, trade spots?
Reiger: Really? Sure!

OK, seriously, from what I heard Darcy Reiger and Kevin Devine (Head of Amateur Scouting) had there eyes on three guys they wanted to have a choice from, and the first two were already taken. LA was in talks with another team to trade the 12th spot, but made the deal with the Sabres instead. (My guess is this led to the later trade by LA for the Sabres 74th spot as well.)

The Sabres picked Tyler Myers - who at 6′7″ towered over the rest of the guys on stage. (Holy cow - is Bettman short or what? - he can’t be 5′4″!) I really like this pick - a guy with some size on the D who can also really skate….

NHL Director of Central Scouting, E.J. McGuire
Strengths: “His height differentiates him from the rest of the draft-eligible defensemen – he towers above all the other players. He is not often burned by the small, quick players and because of the emphasis in today’s NHL on a lack of restraining type of play, I think Tyler has adjusted well to that and is more ready to play in the new NHL than a lot of the other smaller players.”

Areas to improve: “Improvements can be made with his continued maturity. I don’t know that he needs to work on anything other than continuing to work on foot speed, continuing to work on coordination. He’s got a rocket shot from the point on the power-play and that is never going to leave him.”

The Sabres love of fast-skaters has done them pretty well in recent years, and the addition of some serious size on the blue line is great. The guys a bean-pole just now, but at 18 years old still has time to bulk-up. I wouldn’t be surprise if he doesn’t spend another year in the WHL before moving to the Sabres minor-league affiliate in 2009, and hopefully ready for the big club by 2010. A rare draft pick that has me a little bit excited.

At #26, the Sabres went more typical with their second Tyler of the round - Tyler Ennis - a fast, small, offensive-minded forward.

NHL Director of Central Scouting, E.J. McGuire
Strengths: “Tyler is a quick, ‘water-bug’-type player. He scoots up and down the ice and can turn on a dime. He can drive wide on a defenseman who is unaware or a little slow. Tyler may be one of the best pure offensive players in the entire draft.”

Outlook: “Getting bigger is not something within his control, he’s done everything as far as his quickness and offensive development and now I think that it is just ready for him to show it at the next level.”

Some would say this is a stretch, but I am sure Reiger and Devine are thinking that it worked out with Danny Briere, Derek Roy, and Jason Pomminville. It appears to be working with Nathan Gerbe, why not try again? Scoring 91 points in 70 games in the WHL might mean he is even ready to move to the AHL level, though I still wouldn’t expect him in Buffalo this year. The good news is he could the the next Max Afinogenov, the bad news is….he could be the next Max Afinogenov.

The lone 2nd round selection is Luke Adam - a big 6′2″ center who is showing some skill in Juniors - but still appears to need some work to reach his full potential.

Beyond that…I start to lose interest…players at this point are 3-4 years away from the big-club, if they ever make it at all. The Sabres next picked Cory Fienhage, a Minnesota high-schooler, at 81st. Here are the last 5 players drafted with the 81st pick: Ryan Thang, Micheal Carman, Danny Syvret, Vclav Meidl, Stefan Ruzicka. Need I say more - only 2 of them (Syvret and Ruzicka) have played at all in the NHL, with Ruzicka’s 55 games being the most. In fact, my quest to find a solid NHLer drafted at 81st went back through the mists of time to 1991 - 17 years - where I found…Alexei Zhitnik, who co-incidentally played with the Sabres for 9 seasons, though was not drafted by them. So, good luck Cory - you’re going to need it.

Interestingly, the Sabres are holding a rookie camp at Niagara University, not 20 minutes from my house, June 25th through July 1st. I’m tempted to stop in…if just to get a picture of Tyler Myers and Nathan Gerbe standing next to each other.

State of the Sabres - Part 3 - Looking Forward

The final article on the state of the Sabres will focus on the Sabres forwards. While I think they are in much better shape here than on defense, there is still some work to do in the off-season, most noticeably in re-signings or extending contracts. Again, I have indicated the players in the last year of their contract with a *. Their current set of forwards looks something like this:

Under Contract:
Thomas Vanek (LW) 82 GP, 36 G, 26 A, -5
Derek Roy (C) 78 GP, 32 G, 49 A, + 13
Jason Pomminville* (RW) 82 GP, 27 G, 53 A, +16
Jochen Hecht (C) 75 GP, 22 G, 27 A, +1
Ales Kotalik* (RW) 79 GP, 23 G, 20 A, -5
Tim Connolly* (C) 48 GP, 7 G, 33 A, +4
Maxim Afinogenov* (RW) 56 GP, 10 G, 18 A, -16
Drew Stafford (RW) 64 GP, 16 G, 22 A, +3
Adam Mair (C) 72 GP, 5 G, 12 A, -2
Andrew Peters* (LW) 44 GP, 1 G, 1 A, -4
Patrick Kaleta (RW) 40 GP, 3 G, 2 A, +1

RFAs:
Paul Gaustad (C) 82 GP, 10 G, 26 A, -4
Daniel Paille (LW) 77 GP, 19 G, 16 A, +9
Steve Bernier (RW) 76 GP, 16 G, 16 A, -1
Clarke MacArthur (LW) 37 GP, 8 G, 7 A, +3
Michael Ryan (C) 46 GP, 4 G, 4 A, -4

UFAs: None.

Prospects: Mark Mancari, Marek Zagrapan, Nathan Gerbe, Tim Kennedy, Phillip Gogulla

Let me start out by saying – I really like this group. I would not be completely upset to see the Sabres return to the season with the players listed above without any additions. After all, they finished fourth in the league in goals scored at 255, only 7 behind the #1 team. It is not inconceivable that they could be the top scoring team in the league next year with the current line-up. Overall, their weaknesses are a lack of physical play, which I find less a concern here than on the blue-line, and an inability to convert there goal-scoring ability to a successful power play.

There are four players on the list above that I would consider untouchable. The first is Thomas Vanek. I almost felt sorry for Vanek this year – or at least as sorry as you can for a guy that earned $10 million. There was almost no way he would be able to hold up to his off-season contract, which was somewhat forced upon the Sabres by the Edmonton Oilers offer sheet. For the first half of the season the pressure on Vanek was showing. Frequently appearing frustrated, even on a good night, he scored only 12 goals and 13 assists in his first 44 games. The second half showed a great turnaround – with 24 goals and 15 assists in 39 games, averaging a point a game. He’s only in his 3rd season at 24 years old, and because of the signing bonus in his contract, he’s a player that will have more value as time goes by. The thing I like best about him is his willingness to play in front of the net, a desire that’s lacking throughout the NHL.

Derek Roy has played center to Vanek for the last two years, and he really came into his own this season. A long-term (6-year) off-season contract did not phase him, and he was the top point-scorer on the team. This pair will hopefully be playing together for a long time.

Jochen Hecht is another great player to have on the team. Not a goal-scorer per se, but he is probably the best all-around (2-way) player on the team right now. I miss having a line with him and Chris Drury. He’s listed as a center but frequently plays wing.

Next, we come to Jason Pomminville. He has quietly become an offensive force, and I am not sure if he is very well known throughout the league yet. He didn’t lead the Sabres in points or goals, but was only 1 point behind Roy playing predominantly on the second line. He is entering the last year of his contract before becoming a restricted free agent next season. In my opinion, the Sabres need to get him signed to a long-term deal before the season starts. Unless he is demanding some outrageous amount of money (say > $7 million per year) they should do what it takes to lock him up. Letting him go into the season will be like Brian Campbell last year or Chris Drury the year before – his cost will only go up. I think this he is at least as important if not more important than Ryan Miller’s extension. He is only 25 and will continue to grow in ability and could easily be a consistent 30 to 40 goal scorer throughout his career.

Well, now that I got that off my chest, we’ll have a look at the “problem child” players on the team. Take Maxim Afinegenov…please! A dynamic skater that both excites and frustrates the crowds, he is a player with lots of flash but not enough substance. Coming off a couple of good seasons, the 07-08 campaign proved a disappointment. When not injured, his play was consistently poor with his worst tendencies coming to the forefront (lots of giveaways, holding the puck too long). I’ve been begging the Sabres to trade him for about three years….shows what sort of influence I have…right? The problem is that right now is trade value is at an all-time low. It may make sense to management to start the season with him and hope for a boost in value. In the end, I don’t think he will be with the Sabres much longer.

Then there’s Tim Connolly. Where do you start here…he was really flourishing in 05-06 when he had his second major concussion. The next season, the first of his 3-year contract, was a complete wash, though he did play in the playoffs that season as a minor contributor. Darcy Regier spent most of the 06-07 season touting his return as “like getting a new player signing” and even in the off-season that he would be one of the saviors of 07-08. Well, it didn’t turn out that way. Another injury marred season ended when he had to have an operation to repair a bone-spur in his hip. Now entering his last year of his contract, fans are questioning whether he should be brought back.

I will give Connolly two things on the season – when he was playing was about the only time the power play was any good, and he did average almost 1 point per game in the games he played. Seeing as his trade value is essentially nil, the Sabres have two choices – play him or cut him. I vote play him. Another sub-par year means the probable end of his carreer. If he can get healthy (yes a really big if), he could really help the team. The bigger question is what to do with him AFTER this year in that case…I can’t see him being worth big money. I guess that’s for another discussion.

I want to talk about Ales Kotalik – the guy gets a raw deal from fans – he’s always one of the first names that comes up in trade rumors. And his play can be maddening – I went to a game against the Rangers that the Sabres lost 4-3 (Feb 23rd). Kotalik scored two great goals in the game, and then had an absolutely horrendous giveaway late that resulted in the game-winner for New York. But, at $2.5 million, I still want him on my team for two reasons (1) his hard shot on the power play and (2) he’s one of the more consistent Sabres in shootout attempts (10 for 19 in last 2 seasons), and for a team that went 4-9 in shootouts, that it worth something. That said, I would not be sad if he was traded either.

As for the rest of the signed players, Drew Stafford disappointed somewhat this past year, but I would not count him out yet. Adam Mair is a solid fourth-line center that’s scrappy and has veteran experience. Patrick Kaleta came up from Rochester to excite the crowds with some big hits, but truthfully his play is limited. Andrew Peters is the resident tough-guy, though he’s the only goon I know that can make a fight boring.

The RFA list does not have any really big names. Paul Gaustad is another fan favorite. A third line center with some size, he has a lot of heart. He will definitely be re-signed at a reasonable rate (around $1 million per season). Dan Paille really showed the most growth of any of the youngsters on the team. The previous season I thought he showed ability to bring the puck up the ice, but wasn’t adept around the net….this season he improved vastly there, putting in 19 goals from the 3rd line. Hopefully, the Sabres will be able to lock him up to a longer term (3-5 years) deal, as he has some upside.

Steve Bernier came over in the Brian Campbell trade. There is too little to judge on him, but his physical play is an asset to the team. He is likely to be resigned, but if San Jose was willing to part with him, I am not sure how much should be expected. Clarke MacArthur and Micheal Ryan both had time up with the Sabres this past season, and neither has particularly distinguish himself. My guess is they will still be under contract next year, though I would be surprised if it is not a two-way deal.

The Sabres have gotten a lot out of young players over the years coming up from the AHL, but there is not much left there this season. Mark Mancari played a few games the last few years, and may get another look eventually. Marek Zagrapan was the top draft choice in 2005 – and should either be ready to spend some time with the big club or be considered a bust. He had 17 goals, 38 points with Rochester last year, not a spectacular start. Most interesting is Nathan Gerbe, the leading scorer in the NCAA regular season and frozen four tournaments this past year. His size(5’ 6”) has kept him from being favored to make the NHL, but his drive makes him likely to get a shot anyways. It is unlikely he will start with the Sabres, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him later in the season. Tim Kennedy is a Buffalo native also signed this year who will probably not be a factor this season.

What the Sabres should do: Sign Jason Pominville to a long-term deal (> 5 years) as soon as possible. Trade Max Afinogenov to either fortify the defense or to free up room to spend money there. Replace Connolly with a reliable 2nd line center. Sign Gaustad, Bernier, and Paille to multi-year deals (3-year or more). Starting lines on opening night:

Vanek-Roy-Pominville
Hecht-Connolly-Stafford
Bernier-Gaustad-Kotalik
Paille-Mair-Kaleta
Peters for certain games

What the Sabres will do: As I said before, it wouldn’t surprise me if Afinogenov is still here at the start of the season. I think they will try very hard to sign Pominville, but I am not sure they will succeed, at least before the season starts. A trade of another player is always possible as there is plenty of depth here if Max stays, the problem is there is lots of mid-level talent, but not a lot of high-end talent, though how many teams have that in spades. Also, most of the players the Sabres will want to trade won’t have much value. I picture at least one of the mid-range guys will go, though. The good news, though Darcy Reiger is slow to make trades, the ones he makes usually come out in the Sabres favor.

Stay tuned for updates based on the draft, free agency, and RFA signings. This can be an exciting time for hockey fans.

State of the Sabres - Part 2 - What’s our Goal?

When discussing the situation in goal, I probably could keep this short and sweet. Ryan Miller’s the goaltender for the Sabres when the team restarts in September. They need to sign a backup in the off-season, and it won’t be Joceyln Thibault.

End of Story….you can stop reading now.

But it’s never that simple…is it?

The thing is, outside of Buffalo, I’m sure most people think that this is a no-brainer. Miller took the Sabres to Eastern Conference finals in his first two full seasons in the NHL. He was the starting goalie on the all-star team a year ago. He’s entering the last year of his contract, and will probably be ready to sign a long-term deal after July 1st. Sabres management has stated their desire to do this. Why wouldn’t the Sabres want him around long-term?

Well, the fans in Buffalo have turned on Ryan Miller to some extent…not everyone, but a vocal minority. A lot of people I know are saying that Miller lets in too many softies, he let the team down late in the season when he was needed to most, and he should not be given a big long-term contract. He is simply not the goalie of their future.

The funny thing is before this season I was often the one arguing against Ryan Miller. My feeling on him was he was a pretty good goalie but has yet to prove that he is a GREAT goaltender…and I am not convinced that he will ever acheive greatness. His play late this last season was definitely sub-par and he DID let in a lot of soft goals in the last two months. But even so I find myself defending him….”He played too many games down the stretch…the team hasn’t played well in front of him…those were some pretty awful goals he let in last night.” Should I be defending him?

Since this IS Hockeyanalysis after all, let’s take a closer look at Ryan’s stats. (I do want to point out that the Sabres play an open style of hockey that does not condone to a goaltender having stellar numbers, but it is the best way to analyze his worth.) While providing a variety of #s, I ranked his stats compared to other goalies based on save %. Amongst starting goalies, the ranking from ESPN.com showed goalies that started at least 27 games. His regular season records for the last 3 seasons:

05-06: 48 GP 2.60 GAA 0.914 SV% (Ranked 9th)
06-07: 63 GP 2.73 GAA 0.911 SV% (Ranked 15th)
07-08: 76 GP 2.64 GAA 0.906 SV% (Ranked 24th)

Note that while his goal against has remained about the same, his save % has dropped every year. In particular last year he did not even rank amongst the top half of the goaltenders in the NHL. His shootout stats outlined below show an even more precipitous drop-off in the recent campaign:

05-06: 12 SV 17 SHA 70.6 SV% (Rank 14th - out of goalies with >10 SHAgainst)
06-07: 37 SV 46 SHA 80.4 SV% (Rank 6th)
07-08: 19 SV 33 SHA 57.6 SV% (Rank 27th)

{Why do I bother showing shootouts? Because the Sabres were 10-4 in shootouts in 06-07 when they won the President’s trophy, and were 4-9 in 07-08 when they missed the playoffs by 4 points. This amount to 6 points in the season lost season-to-season. Regardless of what you think about shootouts, they are an important part of where your team finishes.}

Finally, his record in the playoffs the last two years. Here I must say he’s pretty solid, especially during the last playoff run, but it still leaves him in the middle of the playoff pack.
05-06: 18 GP (11-7) 2.56 GAA 0.908 SV% (Rank 8 of 17)
06-07: 16 GP (9-7) 2.22 GAA 0.922 SV% (Rank 8 of 16)

So, the stats seem to agree with what people are saying. He did not have a good last season, that’s for sure. Sometimes it helps to look at things a little closer, there’s a larger story behind the stats. Knowing some of the story, I went and broke down his record into three sections this season.

1) Miller started the season not playing well. His record in the first 15 games he started he had a 2.81 GAA, a 0.899 SV%, and a record of 5-9-1.

2) Shortly after this, Ryan admitted that with the departure of Drury and Briere, he had initially decided to take a more vocal leadership role, and admitted that it had affected his game. (I could not find the exact quote on this, but I heard it in an interview on local radio station WGR, so I am paraphrasing here.) He decided he had to step back and focus more on his game. This obviously worked, and in the next 37 games he played he had a 2.16 GAA, 0.924 SV% and a record of 21-8-5. (there were 3 no decision losses in there) These numbers are especially impressive when you consider the Sabres had a 1-7-5 streak in the middle of those games.

3) Late in the season Ryan’s play fell terribly. In the last 24 games he played in, he dropped to a 3.34 GAA, a dismal 0.882 SV%, posting a 10-10-4 record in those games.

What happened here? I blame Lindy Ruff. He’s a great coach, but one of his great mistakes of the past year was he ran Ryan Miller into the ground this season. The man played 76 of 82 games! He was the starting goalie for 34 games in a row. Now Lindy was in a situation where he was on the outside of the playoffs looking in with a backup that had proven himself unreliable. Lindy even admitted it might not have been the best choice here, as quoted from an April 10th press conference sabrefans.com:

Q: Would you want him to play seventy-six games again…?

Ruff: I’ve already said that, ideally, no. No. Not the number of games he played. I think that…it was a very trying season for him in a case where you don’t know what you’re going to get out of your goaltender until you go there. Can you look back on it and say, ‘Boy, I wish I didn’t play that number of games’? You know, hindsight is always a tough place to go. I think where he lost a little bit was some quality practice time in a real tough schedule. When you go into February and March, where he couldn’t take three days just to work on basic stuff that has nothing to do with shots. It has to do with positioning and tracking [the puck] - all of the little drills that you would do that you get right back to the background of playing goal. For him, it was ‘try to get him some rest’ and we played him and ‘try to get him some rest’. I actually encouraged him at times not to go on [the ice] where he liked to take shots.

What does all this mean to me…I still think Ryan Miller is worthy of being a starting goaltender in the national hockey league…though whether he will even be a top five or even top ten goaltender is still up in the air. And there’s something I like about his game…it’s not spectacular, but so fundamentally strong. If he can get his breakaway skills back up to 06-07 talent, he will never be the weak link on any team. And to me, he’s reaching the age where most goalies finally break-out.

But, even if you don’t like him, what would be a viable alternative? The Sabres don’t have any sort of prospect in the wings. Jonas Enroth is probably their best goalie prospect since Miller, but hasn’t even played in the AHL yet, and is probably 2-3 years from even making it to the NHL, never mind as a starter. The only other choice is free agency, where you only overpay for talent, and would be unlikely to upgrade from what Miller gives you…no-one better is even available.

What the Sabres should do: Ryan is entering the last year of his contract. I believe that the Sabres should re-sign him to a long-term deal, depending somewhat on what he is looking for. Hopefully he would be willing to sign for slightly less than the money Henrik Lundqvist recently got at $6.875 million a season. I think at 5-years, $30 million would be fair money for his services. If he demands a larger contract than that, they may end up waiting to see how the season plays out, though this would draw the wrath of fans looking at the possibility of another of the teams stars walking away next year. They then need to sign a reliable back-up that can start 12-20 games for Miller, giving him some sort of rest. Jocelyn Thibault is unlikely to be that man, as they team showed no confidence in him down the stretch, though admittedly what play he had didn’t merit much confidence.

What the Sabres will do: I think this is close to what they will do, though they may just pay Miller more (between $6 and $7 million per year) for the security of having a long-term solution at goaltender. I think the only reason he wouldn’t be locked up is if he really doesn’t want to stay here, which I don’t think is likely.

So I made what seemed so simple awfully complicated. But the results were the same. Too bad I don’t get paid by the word. Coming up in Part 3 - Looking “Forward”

State of the Sabres - Part 1 - In Defense

Now that the hockey season is officially over, there’s only one thing to do…start talking about next season! For a team that missed the playoffs during the 07-08 season, the Sabres are in remarkably good shape. I think there are two main reasons that they fell so far and so fast.

(1) Loss of leadership - This may be an obvious one, but losing Chris Drury and Danny Briere, as well as Teppo Numminen, left a leadership void that the young players on this team struggled to fill. The result was a team that almost appears scizophrenic…playing fantastic for 4 or 5 games, and then having a bad game and going into a funk for two weeks. I think this was starting to sort itself out later in the season, as the consistency of play increased markedly in the last two months.

(2) They were worn down - Two long playoff runs in a row, making it to the Eastern conference finals twice took its toll on the team. I could, and maybe will, write an article on how badly I think a long play-off run (or more specifally a short off-season) spells trouble the following year. Suffice it to say the Sabres were worn out, and it showed.

Missing the playoffs this season should take care of the latter, but the former still needs to be addressed, especially with the loss of Brian Campbell.

So, what I want to do is sumarize where the Sabres stand, what areas they should address and what I think they might do. In Part 1 I will focus on defense and Part 2 on goaltending, while in Part 3 I will discuss the forwards. Note that I will use a (*) to designate a player that is in the last year of a contract.

Defense
Signed Players:
Henrik Tallinder (71 GP, 1 G, 17 A, +5)
Toni Lydman (82 GP 4 G, 22 A, +1)
Jaroslav Spacek* (60 GP 9 G 23 A, +7)
Nathan Paetsch (59 GP 2 G 7 A, +3)

RFAs:
None

UFAs:
Dimitri Kalinin (46 GP 1 G 7 A, -7)
Teppo Numminen (1 GP)
Nolan Pratt (55 GP 1 G 6 A, +1)

Prospects
Andrej Sekera* (37 GP 2 G 6 A, +5)
Mike Weber (16 GP 0 G 3 A, +12)
Micheal Funk (4 GP 0 G 0 A, -3)
Marc-Andra Gragnani (2 GP 0 G 0 A, -2)

The name not listed above is, of course, Brian Campbell; the best two-way defenseman on the team at the start of the season, his spectre will hang over the Sabres in what they do in the off-season. But before I get to that, let’s discuss the players they DO have. I find defensive players are harder to judge, because it is easiest to see what a defenseman does wrong than what he does right, but I’ll give it a shot.

Let’s start with the 4 signed players. Tallinder and Lydman tend to get talked about hand-in-hand - after the 06-07 season, they were pegged as the top defensive pairing on the team. Both are excellent position players, and if someone had asked me last year who was the better player, it would have been Tallinder hands down…Lydman has a habit of pulling at least one bonehead play per game, while Tallinder was always solid. Lydman also tended to struggle when not on the ice with Tallinder. But in 07-08, Tallinder was the one that showed signs of weakness. He made a lot of little errors, many of which appeared mental. I question whether he was one of the players most affected by the two long seasons prior. Lydman on the other hand probably had his strongest season, though he still does not appear to be a #1 or #2 defenseman to me. The one major weakness of both players is a lack of physical play.

Jaroslav Spacek got me excited again last season. He was signed after the 05-06 campaign from Edmonton where he was partnered with Chris Pronger for much of the playoffs. I thought he was exactly what the team needed on defense at the time, but a poor 06-07 campaign on a President’s Trophy team soured me. Though he was decent defensively, his most obvious talent seemed to be shooting the puck wide - wayyyy wide - on the power play. Last year, he came back strong partnered with Campbell (that name again), and though he was out twice for a time with injuries, he is still a strong contributor. With a contract year coming up, he has a good chance at delivering next year if partnered with the right player. He also is one of the few D-men that will get a little physical on the team.

Nathan Paetsch is another of the many players that seemed to break-out during the 06-07 season, only to fall back during last season. He was given a 3-year deal, and was expected to provide a competant relief as the 7th D-man. Injuries to others gave him a lot of chance to play, but he struggled with the oppurtunity. He puck handling skills looked like they could help the power play after 06-07, but these did not manifest either. He will remain a depth defenseman until he shows otherwise.

So right now, the Sabres sit with 3 good but not spectacular blue-liners, and one guy for off the bench.

There UFA’s don’t give much added help:
Kalinin has at times showed talent, but this is a project that has come to an end. His giveaways were legendary among Sabres fans. It’s well worth noting he was the only regular defenseman on the team with a negative +/-. He will be lucky to find work elsewhere in the NHL.
Numminen has problems has well: He will be 40 years old on July 3rd,and he missed the entire last season (except 1 game) after having surgery for a heart condition. He was very solid and a team leader, and provided a lot of stability and focus to the defense. Every season they resigned him for the last two I was surprised. He would have earned $2.8 million last season had he played. I cannot see the Sabres spending that much money on Teppo, even if he wants to come back. However, if he would take a pay cut, he might be worth considering for $1 million or so. Otherwise, it’s time to move on.
Finally, there’s Nolan Pratt. He was signed in November of last year after the previous season with Tampa Bay and no teams interested in his services. The Sabres were thin on D due to injuries and picked him up. He did a fine job as a depth defenseman, but it is questionable whether they would re-sign him again.

The Sabres prospects at least fare a little better. Andrej Sekera proved himself a very capable player late in the season when brought up to cover injuries. A player with two-way skill, he also demonstrated an ability to handle large amounts of ice-time. Likewise, Mike Weber gave fans something to cheer about with his defensive play in 16 games late in the season. Both these players have a shot at making the squad out of training camp, with Sekera almost a certainty. The remaining prospects: including Funk & Gragnani who played a few games with the Sabres, are not ready for the big-time. There are a couple of young prospects as well that I won’t even mention because they are unlikely to see ice-time outside of Portland.

What the Sabres should do: The Sabres need, more than anything else, to add a true #1 defenseman. Some may say that this is where Brian Campbell should have fit in, but my previous article covers my opinion on that decision. They already have plenty of blue-liners that can move the puck up the ice, though maybe not as well as Campbell. What they really need is a guy that is going to provide their defense with both leadership and a physical presence. The fact is, if they combine Numminen, Kalinin, and Campbell’s salary for last season, they have $6.8 million that has been freed up.

I don’t normally like to come up with names for these situations as it is just useless posturing, but I am going to throw out one: Wade Redden. He shouldered some of the blame for Ottawa’s defensive failings, but he’s an excellent blue-liner that is used to playing in a system similar to the Sabres, has some physical ability, and has shown leadership ability. The big question is the price tag as he was already making $6.5 million last season. However, if he could be signed in a similar price range he would be a welcome addition to the team, especially in those rivalry games with the Sens where he would be going all out to beat the team that cast him aside.

After that, the sabres should either re-sign Teppo if the price is right or Nolan Pratt, either guy to use as some depth. The team defense would then be:
Redden-Spacek
Tallinder-Lydman
Numminen or Pratt - Sekera
Paetsch (7th)

What the Sabres will do: Well, it won’t be sign Wade Redden. I think they likely sign a very good defenseman, but will probably not be willing to spend the money to get one of that caliber, else they would have spent it on Brian Campbell. The player will be in the $4 - $5 million price range. I think they would like to have Numminen back at a lower price, and by the fact that he has not yet announced retirement i think it is a strong possiblity - he would not be the first D-man to play into his 40s. If not him, then another experienced depth defenseman will be signed, which I think will not be Nolan Pratt. Sekera will start the season with the Sabres, but Weber will start in the minors.

Next up, a brief discussion of the Sabres goaltending situation. (Here’s a hint - his full name will begin and end in the letter R.)

{As a side note I have to say, making predictions in which there is no consequence for being wrong is fun! I can throw ideas out there like everyone else and see if they prove right. I should take up meteorology while I’m at it.}