Buffalo Sabres

State of the Sabres - Part 3 - Looking Forward

The final article on the state of the Sabres will focus on the Sabres forwards. While I think they are in much better shape here than on defense, there is still some work to do in the off-season, most noticeably in re-signings or extending contracts. Again, I have indicated the players in the last year of their contract with a *. Their current set of forwards looks something like this:

Under Contract:
Thomas Vanek (LW) 82 GP, 36 G, 26 A, -5
Derek Roy (C) 78 GP, 32 G, 49 A, + 13
Jason Pomminville* (RW) 82 GP, 27 G, 53 A, +16
Jochen Hecht (C) 75 GP, 22 G, 27 A, +1
Ales Kotalik* (RW) 79 GP, 23 G, 20 A, -5
Tim Connolly* (C) 48 GP, 7 G, 33 A, +4
Maxim Afinogenov* (RW) 56 GP, 10 G, 18 A, -16
Drew Stafford (RW) 64 GP, 16 G, 22 A, +3
Adam Mair (C) 72 GP, 5 G, 12 A, -2
Andrew Peters* (LW) 44 GP, 1 G, 1 A, -4
Patrick Kaleta (RW) 40 GP, 3 G, 2 A, +1

RFAs:
Paul Gaustad (C) 82 GP, 10 G, 26 A, -4
Daniel Paille (LW) 77 GP, 19 G, 16 A, +9
Steve Bernier (RW) 76 GP, 16 G, 16 A, -1
Clarke MacArthur (LW) 37 GP, 8 G, 7 A, +3
Michael Ryan (C) 46 GP, 4 G, 4 A, -4

UFAs: None.

Prospects: Mark Mancari, Marek Zagrapan, Nathan Gerbe, Tim Kennedy, Phillip Gogulla

Let me start out by saying – I really like this group. I would not be completely upset to see the Sabres return to the season with the players listed above without any additions. After all, they finished fourth in the league in goals scored at 255, only 7 behind the #1 team. It is not inconceivable that they could be the top scoring team in the league next year with the current line-up. Overall, their weaknesses are a lack of physical play, which I find less a concern here than on the blue-line, and an inability to convert there goal-scoring ability to a successful power play.

There are four players on the list above that I would consider untouchable. The first is Thomas Vanek. I almost felt sorry for Vanek this year – or at least as sorry as you can for a guy that earned $10 million. There was almost no way he would be able to hold up to his off-season contract, which was somewhat forced upon the Sabres by the Edmonton Oilers offer sheet. For the first half of the season the pressure on Vanek was showing. Frequently appearing frustrated, even on a good night, he scored only 12 goals and 13 assists in his first 44 games. The second half showed a great turnaround – with 24 goals and 15 assists in 39 games, averaging a point a game. He’s only in his 3rd season at 24 years old, and because of the signing bonus in his contract, he’s a player that will have more value as time goes by. The thing I like best about him is his willingness to play in front of the net, a desire that’s lacking throughout the NHL.

Derek Roy has played center to Vanek for the last two years, and he really came into his own this season. A long-term (6-year) off-season contract did not phase him, and he was the top point-scorer on the team. This pair will hopefully be playing together for a long time.

Jochen Hecht is another great player to have on the team. Not a goal-scorer per se, but he is probably the best all-around (2-way) player on the team right now. I miss having a line with him and Chris Drury. He’s listed as a center but frequently plays wing.

Next, we come to Jason Pomminville. He has quietly become an offensive force, and I am not sure if he is very well known throughout the league yet. He didn’t lead the Sabres in points or goals, but was only 1 point behind Roy playing predominantly on the second line. He is entering the last year of his contract before becoming a restricted free agent next season. In my opinion, the Sabres need to get him signed to a long-term deal before the season starts. Unless he is demanding some outrageous amount of money (say > $7 million per year) they should do what it takes to lock him up. Letting him go into the season will be like Brian Campbell last year or Chris Drury the year before – his cost will only go up. I think this he is at least as important if not more important than Ryan Miller’s extension. He is only 25 and will continue to grow in ability and could easily be a consistent 30 to 40 goal scorer throughout his career.

Well, now that I got that off my chest, we’ll have a look at the “problem child” players on the team. Take Maxim Afinegenov…please! A dynamic skater that both excites and frustrates the crowds, he is a player with lots of flash but not enough substance. Coming off a couple of good seasons, the 07-08 campaign proved a disappointment. When not injured, his play was consistently poor with his worst tendencies coming to the forefront (lots of giveaways, holding the puck too long). I’ve been begging the Sabres to trade him for about three years….shows what sort of influence I have…right? The problem is that right now is trade value is at an all-time low. It may make sense to management to start the season with him and hope for a boost in value. In the end, I don’t think he will be with the Sabres much longer.

Then there’s Tim Connolly. Where do you start here…he was really flourishing in 05-06 when he had his second major concussion. The next season, the first of his 3-year contract, was a complete wash, though he did play in the playoffs that season as a minor contributor. Darcy Regier spent most of the 06-07 season touting his return as “like getting a new player signing” and even in the off-season that he would be one of the saviors of 07-08. Well, it didn’t turn out that way. Another injury marred season ended when he had to have an operation to repair a bone-spur in his hip. Now entering his last year of his contract, fans are questioning whether he should be brought back.

I will give Connolly two things on the season – when he was playing was about the only time the power play was any good, and he did average almost 1 point per game in the games he played. Seeing as his trade value is essentially nil, the Sabres have two choices – play him or cut him. I vote play him. Another sub-par year means the probable end of his carreer. If he can get healthy (yes a really big if), he could really help the team. The bigger question is what to do with him AFTER this year in that case…I can’t see him being worth big money. I guess that’s for another discussion.

I want to talk about Ales Kotalik – the guy gets a raw deal from fans – he’s always one of the first names that comes up in trade rumors. And his play can be maddening – I went to a game against the Rangers that the Sabres lost 4-3 (Feb 23rd). Kotalik scored two great goals in the game, and then had an absolutely horrendous giveaway late that resulted in the game-winner for New York. But, at $2.5 million, I still want him on my team for two reasons (1) his hard shot on the power play and (2) he’s one of the more consistent Sabres in shootout attempts (10 for 19 in last 2 seasons), and for a team that went 4-9 in shootouts, that it worth something. That said, I would not be sad if he was traded either.

As for the rest of the signed players, Drew Stafford disappointed somewhat this past year, but I would not count him out yet. Adam Mair is a solid fourth-line center that’s scrappy and has veteran experience. Patrick Kaleta came up from Rochester to excite the crowds with some big hits, but truthfully his play is limited. Andrew Peters is the resident tough-guy, though he’s the only goon I know that can make a fight boring.

The RFA list does not have any really big names. Paul Gaustad is another fan favorite. A third line center with some size, he has a lot of heart. He will definitely be re-signed at a reasonable rate (around $1 million per season). Dan Paille really showed the most growth of any of the youngsters on the team. The previous season I thought he showed ability to bring the puck up the ice, but wasn’t adept around the net….this season he improved vastly there, putting in 19 goals from the 3rd line. Hopefully, the Sabres will be able to lock him up to a longer term (3-5 years) deal, as he has some upside.

Steve Bernier came over in the Brian Campbell trade. There is too little to judge on him, but his physical play is an asset to the team. He is likely to be resigned, but if San Jose was willing to part with him, I am not sure how much should be expected. Clarke MacArthur and Micheal Ryan both had time up with the Sabres this past season, and neither has particularly distinguish himself. My guess is they will still be under contract next year, though I would be surprised if it is not a two-way deal.

The Sabres have gotten a lot out of young players over the years coming up from the AHL, but there is not much left there this season. Mark Mancari played a few games the last few years, and may get another look eventually. Marek Zagrapan was the top draft choice in 2005 – and should either be ready to spend some time with the big club or be considered a bust. He had 17 goals, 38 points with Rochester last year, not a spectacular start. Most interesting is Nathan Gerbe, the leading scorer in the NCAA regular season and frozen four tournaments this past year. His size(5’ 6”) has kept him from being favored to make the NHL, but his drive makes him likely to get a shot anyways. It is unlikely he will start with the Sabres, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him later in the season. Tim Kennedy is a Buffalo native also signed this year who will probably not be a factor this season.

What the Sabres should do: Sign Jason Pominville to a long-term deal (> 5 years) as soon as possible. Trade Max Afinogenov to either fortify the defense or to free up room to spend money there. Replace Connolly with a reliable 2nd line center. Sign Gaustad, Bernier, and Paille to multi-year deals (3-year or more). Starting lines on opening night:

Vanek-Roy-Pominville
Hecht-Connolly-Stafford
Bernier-Gaustad-Kotalik
Paille-Mair-Kaleta
Peters for certain games

What the Sabres will do: As I said before, it wouldn’t surprise me if Afinogenov is still here at the start of the season. I think they will try very hard to sign Pominville, but I am not sure they will succeed, at least before the season starts. A trade of another player is always possible as there is plenty of depth here if Max stays, the problem is there is lots of mid-level talent, but not a lot of high-end talent, though how many teams have that in spades. Also, most of the players the Sabres will want to trade won’t have much value. I picture at least one of the mid-range guys will go, though. The good news, though Darcy Reiger is slow to make trades, the ones he makes usually come out in the Sabres favor.

Stay tuned for updates based on the draft, free agency, and RFA signings. This can be an exciting time for hockey fans.