Buffalo Sabres

Cost of success

The summer doldrums are here…the season is still almost two months away, and the excitement of free agency is far in the rearview mirror. So I thought this would be a good time to do a little thought experiment. But first, a refresher:

The year coming out of the lockout was the most exciting one I’ve ever experienced being a sports fan. Not only had the NHL come back looking faster and more exciting, but the team I was rooting for looked not just good but amazing. I remember saying to myself even before that wonderful playoff run “This is a team that we as fans will look back at a wonder - how did so much talent all fall onto the same team.” In a way, they reminded me of the early ’80s Oilers - fast, mobile and unstoppable with an almost ridiculous depth of talent. At the time, I hoped that we could get 3 or 4 years of them together before they got split up. As it turned out for all the credit Sabres Darcy Reiger and Larry Quinn were given with anticipating the direction of the league they did not anticipate well enough to sign any of their guys to long term contracts. The summer of 2006 saw 12 players head towards arbitration and resulted in the loss of Jay McKee and Mike Grier to FA and JP Dumont to cap realities. Another successful year resulted in an even worse summer 2007 where both teams leaders - Briere and Drury - were lost to free agency, again due to the Sabres mismanagement of the situation. A third leader - Teppo Numminen, went down before the season started. And Campbell was traded away to prevent a fourth unrequited defection this summer.

Therefore, we sit here in the summer of 2008 with only 15of the 24 primary players on that 05-06 team still in gold and blue. But, I thought it would be fun and informative to look at that 05-06 team and the salaries the players were making and see what the team cost would be for next season had they signed for the same money in Buffalo. (For non-fans of the Sabres, I put a * next to players who are still currently on the roster.)

Name ———— 2005 salary ——- 2008 salary —- % Increase
Thomas Vanek* — $942,400 ——– $8,000,000 ——- 749%
Daniel Briere —— $1,930,000 ——- $8,000,000 ——315%
Brian Campbell —– $459,800 ——– $7,100,000 ——1444%
Chris Drury ——– $2,926,000 ——- $7,100,000 —– 143%
J.P. Dumont ——- $1,596,000 ——- $4,000,000 —– 151%
Jay McKee ——— $1,600,000 —— $4,000,000 —– 150%
Jochen Hecht* —– $1,900,000 —— $3,800,000 ——100%
Maxim Afinogenov* - $1,086,000 —— $3,500,000 —— 222%
Derek Roy* ——— $782,000 ——– $3,500,000 —– 348%
Martin Biron ——– $2,128,000 ——- $3,500,000 —– 64%
Ryan Miller* ——– $501,600 ——– $3,500,000 ——- 598%
Tim Connolly* —— $1,036,900 ——- $3,500,000 —— 238%
Toni Lydman* —— $1,900,000 ——- $3,150,000 —— 66%
Henrik Tallinder* — $591,800 ——— $2,900,000 —— 390%
Ales Kotalik* ——- $837,900 ——— $2,500,000 —— 198%
Dmitri Kalinin —— $1,330,000 ——- $2,100,000 ——- 58%
Mike Grier ——— $1,364,400 ——- $1,775,000 —— 30%
Paul Gaustad* —– $501,600 ——— $1,700,000 —– 239%
Taylor Pyatt ——- $989,720 ——— $1,575,000 —- 59%
Jason Pominville* — $450,000 ———- $1,375,000 —- 206%
Adam Mair* ——- $450,000 ———- $750,000 —— 67%
Juri Novotny —— $500,000 ———- $750,000 —— 50%
Andrew Peters* — $450,000 ———- $500,000 —— 11%
Teppo Numminen — $2,000,000 ——– $1,100,000 —— (-45%)

Totals ———– $28,254,120 ——– $79,675,000 —182%

First off - wholly cow! A cumulative salary increase of 182% with a total price-tag of $78.6 million. I also calculated the current cap hit of this theoretical team and came up with $75.4 million, making this fantasy Sabres team $19 million over the cap. As a reminder, the 05-06 salary cap was $39 million and is currently $56.1 million, which is an overall increase of 44 % in three years - pretty hefty, huh? I wish I had a 44 % raise in the last three years. But 182 % is incredible - this means the average Sabres salary has increased by four times the league average!

How about this: in 05-06 there were no players out of 24 on the team making over $3 million and only three at $2 million and above (Drury, Teppo & Biron). There are now thirteen players making upwards of $3 million and 16 above $2 million. This will increase to 18 next year with Pomminville and Gaustad.

Of the top six players on that list, only one is still a Sabre - Thomas Vanek. (Miller will move into that group next year, but this year is still only at $3.5 million.) This highlights that the Sabres are either fiscally responsible or terribly cheap - truth is its a little of both.

Brian Campbell had the biggest pay increase by far at 1444% in 3 years. By no coincidence, he is my pick for the most overpaid player on the list relative to his worth. Second to him would be Chris Drury - who while a favorite player of mine is not a $7 million hockey player. Third would be Vanek - though his price tag drops to a more in line $6.4 million a year next season which is not a bad price to pay for a potential 40 goal scorer. Of those top 4 - Briere is the one probably most worth the top coin a little over Vanek only because he brings leadership to your team. Best current value - Jason Pomminville - though not for much longer!

So, what should all this tell you? That while the Sabres put together a team coming out of the lockout that was well built for the style of play - management did not successfully estimate the abilities of the team (definitely their fault) or the subsequent rise in salaries (not so much their fault). Most of the players in 05-06 had 1 year contracts…the UFA agents in the next two off-seasons all drifted away for big raises. Imagine had the Sabres locked up their core back then, what might yet have been?

Ah well, I still like a lot of what has happened with this team - there are still a dozen key players from that team still with the Sabres. In addition there is Spacek and Rivet add veteran defense leadership, and young guns like Stafford, Paille and Sekera rounding out the roster. I keep coming back to the same thing - I really like the team make up and I think that this team will come out this year and surprise a lot of people…maybe not to the point that they did in 05-06, but they will hopefully remind people of some of that teams greatness.

You will probably not hear from me again until September as I will be traveling through the end of August. Then, I will look back at the Sabres off-season and compare what I predicted would happen with what actually happened. (Hint: I was pretty darn close!)