1st round predictions - a view from the outside - Part II
April 27th, 2009 by PeterSWell, four matches are decided, with four coming down to game 6 or 7. So far, I am 4-0 in my predictions, with the matches I didn’t think would be close (Detroit and Boston) going in my favor. Philly ended up giving the Pens a little bit of trouble, but really a fairly easy win for the Pens. That one was a great series, too. The fourth match-up with Vancouver I could have gone either way, but certainly called that one right.
With four to go, what do I think now of my original picks:
Washington vs NY Rangers - I picked the Caps, and while I will admit that the Rangers have been a lot more effective than I thought, I did think this series would go long with the Rangers superior defence. With one game to go, this series really could go either way. By the fact that Washington has won 3 of the last 4, I gotta think I would stick with my pick at this stage. I always say that in hockey playoffs, the better team always wins. The exception is a game 7; if they get that far, they are pretty even anayways, and at that point, it can go either way.
NJ vs Carolina - One of my upset picks, I picked Carolina in this series, and they are certainly staying in there with the two teams alternating wins. Carolina has yet to go ahead in the series, though, and in a one game playoff, I would give a slight advantage to the Devils.
San Jose vs Anaheim - A lot in the press about Joe Thorton’s no-show…why is anyone surprised at this? For his regular season stats, he is just about the biggest playoff bust of all time, why would anything change now. As I said originally, San Jose got as unlucky as could be with this match-up…but if you are the President’s Trophy winner, you gotta get the job done, and they are not doing it. (Understand, I haven’t seen any of these games, just from what I read.) I see the Ducks wrapping this up tonight.
Chicago vs Calgary - A good friend said this has been a great series, I again have seen very little, but it doesn’t surprise me…usually 4 vs 5 is a great series. The home team has won every game so far…not a surprise with Calgary in the mix. Does it continue through Game 7? I think there is a very real possibility.
So, we’ll see how the rest goes…to think we could get 4 game sevens in the first round alone. I’ll be watching intently on Tuesday!
Posted in Sabres Blog
6 Responses to “1st round predictions - a view from the outside - Part II”
By Ivan M on Apr 27, 2009
The entry about San Jose match up as idiotic and as clueless as it could have been.
And well done ignoring Thornton’s performance in Game 5 where he had a point on each Sharks goal.
If you want to sound like you know anything about hockey, I recommend watching games.
By PeterS on Apr 27, 2009
Ouch. I admitted I hadn’t watched the games in that series…only what I read others saying. Living on the east coast, I can’t stay up until 2 AM every night to watch the games, so excuse my ignorance. I did read the comments about Thornton before game 5, so I am glad to hear he contributed, but there’s no denying his history:
Career Regular Season: 836 games, 265 goals (0.317 goals per game), 842 points (1.007 points per games), plus/minus of + 114
Career Playoffs: 75 games, 12 goals (0.160 goals per game), 53 points (0.706 points per game), plus/minus of -12
His goal production is off by almost 50% in the playoffs, and point totals by 30%. (On the plus side, this means his assists are only down 20% in playoff games!) He’s a career - player in the playoffs, and though he’s had nine consecutive 20 goal seasons, he hasn’t scored more than 2 goals in a post-season since 1999.
So, my timing on my comment may have been off, but on a whole I defend what I said. Now, you can’t blame one player for a team losing, and certainly it isn’t all Thornton fault, but I simply grabbed a point I knew about a series I am not very familiar with. (I’ve repeatedly written I am more of an Eastern Conference guy.)
Truthfully, just happy to know someone’s reading…so bitch me out anytime I’m wrong.
By Ivan M on Apr 27, 2009
Thanks for the response and for defending your opinion with numbers. I understand the east coast thing - I have the same problem - I can’t watch many good East games because I’m still at work when they begin.
Thornton’s production falls off in playoffs, but he’s had one hell of a game on Saturday, and I have to defend him. I expect more of the same from him today as the Ducks starting to become nervous.
You also shouldn’t ignore the fact that this series is more about the goalies than anything else. While Nabokov lets in soft goals in every game, Hiller is standing on his head, making 40+ saves every damn night. I don’t know how long the rookie is going to keep it up (5 solid games in a row isn’t something he’s ever done in the past in his NHL career) or how long Nabby is going to keep sucking, but I’m hoping that the Sharks found the right recipe for Hiller in the last game (and that is, crash the bloody net and send 3-4 people to pound on his pads).
One more point. The Ducks sucked at home all season, including playoffs.
It’s never easy to beat a team who’s only two years removed from the Stanley Cup. I don’t think that tonight’s game is as easy to predict as you wrote here.
By Ivan M on Apr 27, 2009
By the way, your boy Brian Campbell is a much bigger playoff choke than Thornton. The highest paid player on Chicago lineup has been largely invisible in that series.
Would love to hear your opinion on him since you’re the Sabres fan.
By mthompson on Apr 27, 2009
campbell just isn’t relied upon as much by chicago as he was in buffalo and san jose. seabrook, barker, and keith are all capable puck movers and they all like rushing the puck.
campbell has had some good rushes, but for the most part he just blends into that excellent 4 man unit.
By PeterS on Apr 28, 2009
My opinion on Brian Campbell is he is severely overpaid. He is a great guy, and he can put points on the board (in the regular season, anyways) which is pretty rare for a defenseman, so I guess I see why he got the big bucks…and he can give you lots of minutes…but he is NOT a great defenseman. If what mthompson indicates is true, you don’t pay a guy $7 million to “blend into that…unit”, but they did win the series. (I have seen very little of Chicage this season…even though Chicago has a couple of Buffalo connections. Patrick Kane grew up here, and I know several people that watched him play as a kid.)
Detroit vs Anaheim and Vancouver vs Chicago…it won’t be as easy for D and V this round, huh?