1st round reflections and 2nd round predictions

April 29th, 2009 by PeterS

Not to brag, but…4-0 in my Eastern Conference Predictions! (OK, that’s bragging.) But, hey, what a night last night! Not one, but two Game 7s, and both decided late in the game. Too bad you couldn’t watch them both without center ice in the US. I watched the whole Caps vs Rangers game and thoroughly enjoyed it. The Caps came out looking tight and couldn’t get anything going early on, but slowly took over the game. The Versus announcers kept going on about how good the Rangers were playing defensively, even when they were no longer doing so. But with a 1-1 tie going towards the end of the game, I kept thinking: “Oh, it’s all Capitals, so the Rangers will score some stupid fluke goal and come out on top.” But, then Federov came down the right side and ended it.

Another stupid thing the announcers kept repeating how Lundqvist was again beaten high glove side on that last shot…but how perfectly placed was that shot! It was a true beauty. Then you expect the Rangers to go on the offensive, but they couldn’t turn it on. They didn’t even get to pull their goaltender. And the Rangers finally fell due to what I’ve been thinking all year would be their downfall, and inability to manufacture offense.

I was stuck watching game highlights of the Carolina / NJ game on Versus like most of America, but what a shocker. NJ not only blew the lead but lost the game in less than a minute. Brodeur again showed how fallible he is in the playoffs of late. I will agree that Marty Brodeur is one of the greatest goaltenders of all time, but the last few years he has failed the Devils when they needed him most, in the playoffs. (Carolina won Game 4 with <1 second left also.) Give lots of credit to Carolina - they are continuing their effort from the end of the season.

So, I went 6-2 in the first round, and 4-0 in the East, where I admittedly knew the teams much better. I’m going to try and keep it going with the second round. Here’s my picks:

Eastern Conference
Boston Bruins (#1) vs Carolina Hurricanes (#6)
Sorry ‘Canes fans, I see this as too lopsided a match-up. The Bruins have everything on the Hurricanes, Offense, Defense, Goaltending, Special Teams. They must have been thrilled when Carolina won that series and they didn’t have to match-up with Piitsburgh. The Bruins are 4-0 in the season series, outscoring Carolina 18-4. Now, all those games were before the ‘Canes went on their late-season tear, but I think the Bruins are just too good for them. Their best hope is the Bruins come out soft after a 9-day layoff, but typically a team that played an easy series comes out and creams a team that played a long, emotional 7-game series. I don’t think the Bruins will sweep them, but it surprise me if this series goes past 6 games. Bruins all the way.

Washington Capitals (#2) versus Pittsburgh Penguins (#4)
Gosh, do you think the NHL and Versus/NBC are salivating over this matchup? Truthfully, it should be a pretty good series even without the hype, with a great likelihood of lots of scoring and lots of skating. Caps won the season series, 3-0-1, but the biggest question mark in this series is the Washington goaltending. It’s a lot different job shutting down Pittsburgh than it is the NY Rangers. Can Varlamov continue to come up big for the Washington? If he doesn’t, do you go back to Theodore? For that reason alone, I am going to pick the Pittsburgh Penguins in this series. But in truth, I’ll be rooting for AO and the Caps.

Western Coference
Detroit Red Wings (#2) versus Anaheim Ducks (#8)
This is the series that FANS should be salivating for…the last two Stanley Cup winners face off. Won team played great down the stretch and knocked off the President’s Trophy winners fairly handily. The other team was barely tested in the first round, but is well rested and raring to go. Detroit leads the season series 3-0-1. Hiller played some fantastic hockey in the series, who gradually took over the goaltending spot from JS Giguere. I want to say right now whichever of these two teams makes it out of this round is the team I’ll be picking to go to the Stanley Cup finals. I considered just picking the Ducks because that way if I am right, I’ll look brilliant. But the fact is, I think that Detroit will win this battle, though I won’t be surprised if it goes to seven games. I only hope I can see some of the games.

Vancouver Canucks (#3) versus Chicago Blackhawks (#4)
The two teams left that I probably know the least about. Chicago is still a young team, but they are playing very well together. Vancouver has Roberto Luongo, two Sedins and a Sundin. The season series went 2-2, so not even much to learn there, though Vancouver won the last two in blow-outs. In a case like this where I don’t have a strong feeling, I go with my gut, and my gut says Chicago.

Posted in Sabres Blog
  1. 4 Responses to “1st round reflections and 2nd round predictions”

  2. By Justin Becker on Apr 30, 2009

    I agree with your picks (and assessments, and rooting for the Caps) for the series in the east.

    I’m also in the same boat as you regarding the west, as I’m largely unfamiliar. Allan Muir on cnnsi.com previews the series nicely:

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/allan_muir/04/29/west.semifinal.breakdowns/index.html?eref=T1

    From what I’ve seen and read about Detroit and Anaheim, I think Detroit is a machine that the Ducks cannot stop…if Detroit wins the first 2 games, it will be over in 5.

    Chicago v. Vancouver is the series that I have the highest expectations for, and will be doing my best to follow (what with my center ice package and all, supplementing the VS channel). I’m not going to pick a winner, and outside of Patrick Kane I’m not even really going to pick a side to root for. Muir wrote, “Memo to the training staffs in Chicago and Vancouver: Start loading up on ice packs and sutures. Based on the personnel — and a fight-filled series finale back in February — this stacks up as the most physical match-up of the postseason.”

    The puck drops tonight! (I have a concert tonight, so the DVR also records tonight!)

  3. By PeterS on Apr 30, 2009

    Hey Justin,

    It does sound like a bunch of good series this round. I guess I would say the big winners are the fans that get to watch some great match-ups.

    Now here’s a question: After watching the first round, do you Buffalo had any chance at all against Boston or the Caps? People around here seem to still be saying: “Oh, Boston was lucky they didn’t get the Sabres.” I don’t think so. Buffalo might have done better than Montreal and at least won a game or two, but no way they get past the first round with this team, even if they make the playoffs.

  4. By Justin Becker on Apr 30, 2009

    Hi Pete,

    Against Boston, no chance for the Sabres in a series. I like Ryan Miller’s best vs. Tim Thomas’ best, despite his Vezina-quality season. However, over 7 games, no way I can believe Boston wouldn’t have won 4.

    I think they would have had a chance against Washington. Again, goaltending - provided Miller being on his game, I think the Sabres could have competed nicely in that series, and might have been able to win.

  5. By Justin Becker on May 4, 2009

    Boy was I wrong about the Detroit v Anaheim series! I underestimated both Anaheim’s defense and Jonas Hiller. I suppose I expect them to split games 3 and 4 now, and then a very exciting “3 game series”.

    I still think Boston is going to crush Carolina, despite yesterday’s game. I may be wrong. :-)

    The Blackhawks remind me of the Sabres the year out of the lockout, only a lot tougher. Luongo (and his defense) had better step up, or that series will be over quickly.

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