The Sabres are 3-3-1 out of the break, but 3-1-1 in their last 5. They’ve gained some ground on the Senators, who are a 1-4-1 since the break, and have only scored more than 1 goal in one of those six games. The Sabres are up by 3 points, with 2 games in hand (15 games left versus 13).

This week - the Sabres have 4 games against the SE conference, all teams that currently sit outside the playoff race, though three of them are technically still in the race. Playing weaker teams like this, and likely having a major pro-Buffalo crowd, I would say the Sabres should be targeting at least 6 out of 8 points. They have been playing well the last week or so, and it will hopefully start showing in the W column. There is a decent chance that we will see Patrick Lalime again in either the Florida or Carolina game. (Personally, I would put him in against Florida, who is struggling much more than Carolina right now.)

Interestingly, Ottawa only has 3 games this week, which will bring them down to only 1-game behind the Sabres, but then they have two games next week (Monday and Tuesday), which bring the Sabres back to 3-games in hand. Ottawa opponents are not strong this week either (Toronto @ home, then Atlanta and Dallas on the road) so they could easily get all six points. The next week will be tougher, playing at Montreal and then home the next night against Philly. Either way, each team is 5 games away from a face-off in HSBC arena. This should be a HUGE game that is only 11 days away.

Ryan Miller continues with his Olympian play…allowing only 5 goals in 3 games since the break. The team played A LOT better in front of him on Friday vs the Caps game. They STILL can barely score goals, but the game on Friday with the Flyers was very evenly played. While the Flyers got their chances, so did the Sabres, and after a HORRENDOUS giveaway from Tim Connoly to Mike Richards late in the game, they came back and tied it up (from Adam Mair) with Tim Connoly winning it in overtime.

I didn’t really watch the game last night, but the impression I got was a decent played road game…but it is a big concern when your only goal-scoring is coming from your fourth liners and the power play is absolutely terrible.

So, the Sabres haven’t aren’t yet back on top of their games, but they now sit two points up on Ottawa, with 2 games still in their pocket. Next up is three Western Conference games with Dallas, Minnesota and Detroit. None of these are strong opponents, so the hope is the Sabres can get 4 out of 6 from these three. (The Detroit game seems the toughest, with it coming as the third game in four nights, on the road, and quite likely to see the backup goaltender. That starts a 5 game road trips, but the opponents on that trip (Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Florida and Carolina) are not strong. Actually, if you think about it, of those next 8 games, only 1 opponent is currently in a playoff spot, and that is Detroit in the 8th position. A good time to get on a roll!

It started out promising enough, with the Sabres getting the better of the Capitals for the first 10 minutes of the game. Even the rest of the period was fairly even-handed, and when the first period ended 0-0, it looked like we would be in for a good game.

Then, it all went down the toilet. The Sabres as a group apparently decided that the offensive zone was too dangerous a place to be, and so they stayed out of it. I found myself screaming at them when they would come down the ice and shoot the puck into the corners, and then just let the Caps come and get it.

Now, I’ll give the Sabres a little credit. They DID play a pretty decent defensive game. The Capitals looked like they hadn’t played together in 2.5 weeks, which they hadn’t, but the Sabres were also very effective at preventing oppurtunities, particularly limiting Ovechkin’s chances throughout the game. However, their defense started to break-down a bit late in the 2nd, and Jason Chimera got a goal on a point shot that deflected twice before going past Miller. The Sabres game back immediately after on one of their rare offensive bursts, and the game was still tied at 1-1.

Yet, then they came out and played JUST AS BAD in the third. At one point just before the Caps scored, my wife asked me “Do you think this game is going to Overtime?” I replied with, “Well, it certainly doesn’t look like the Sabres want to score before then.” Even the Caps going ahead 2-1 couldn’t get them to come to life. Did they miss Clarke Macarthur this much?

In the end, what’s so complicated…get pucks to the net, and get bodies there with them. It seemed like they were so afraid of Washington’s offense that they didn’t dare accomplish any of their own.

So, I hope the players will get as angry as this game made me. This team is pissing away the success of their first 50 games. If they don’t start playing, they’ll probably limp to a playoff berth, but will be a one and done team in the playoffs. I don’t want to see that, Ryan Miller deserves better. (He played a STELLAR game, by the way.)

Back at it on Friday - I get to go to that game to with a buddy who’s a Flyers fan. Raffi Torres will be in the line-up, and hopefully someone will kick this team in the collective ass, because I DON’T want to sit through that performance again.

Good for you Darcy! Let’s face the facts, it is unlikely that the current configuration Sabres is going to be vying for the Stanley Cup this season. You don’t want to Mortgage your future for something that is unlikely even with a major rental player. BUT, they DID need to make themselves a little better if they hope to push for the Division title, and that is what Darcy Reiger did. Raffi Torres is a hard-working forward that can play on your top two lines, and with luck give you a half-dozen goals down the stretch. Giving up Paestch, their 8th D-man, and MacArthur, who continues to underwhelm, is no loss at all in my view. (Yes, MacArthur has 13 goals…but is so streaky he could finish the season with no more quite easily. He is NOT a major piece of the puzzle and will not be missed - at least not by me.)

Hopefully, the shake-up will help the team. Interestingly, they lost two players for one, and with Gaustad also out for some time, it makes me wonder if someone will be coming up from Portland to fill that slot.

In other news, the Sabres lost to Pittsburgh last night (in PA) which didn’t really surprise me. Tonight is another tough test against the Caps. What’s interesting is while the Caps aquired 4 new players today, they also traded away 2. I think we can assume that none of those players will be playing for the Capitals tonight. The Sabres could REALLY use a win tonight. It seems unlikely that Torres will be with the team on the ice until Friday…but hopefully we will see an A+ effort in front of Miller’s return from the Olympics. I expect to see a revved up crowd at the game tonight!

The final game was a good one. Canada continued to appear the better team on the ice, but Ryan Miller was the better goalie, and that was almost enough to win. The key for Canada here I think was a more responsible defensive play. While it would’ve been nice for the US to get the win, it really means a lot more to Canadians than it does to us here in the states. Just don’t rub it in my face when I come across the border to visit!

So, the Sabres pick things up with a rough couple of games against Pittsburgh and Washington…but what I really wanted to spend a few minutes looking at was thier real competition down the stretch…assuming they don’t completely collapse, the Sabres really need to compete with the Senators more than any other team. Beating the Senators in the remaining 22 games will get them a 3rd seed, if not, they will likely slot in the fifth place.

So - what’s their schedule’s look like in comparison:

Teams: Sabres vs Senators
# points: 75 vs 76
# Games left: 22 vs 19
Advantage: Sabres - Three games in hand is a big # with this few games to go…the Sabres have 16 % more points available to them. Of course, they have to WIN those games.
# Home games: 9 vs 8
Home records: 19-7-6 vs 23-8-3
# Away games: 13 vs 11
Home records: 14-11-3 vs 13-15-1
So the Senators are the better home team, while the Sens are the better road team. Both have more road games than home games…so slight advantage Sabres.

Opponents:
Opponents in Top 8 Teams in conferences: 10 vs 7
Opponents in Bot 7 Teams in coferences: 12 vs 12
Advantage Senators - Having less games over the same period of time, yet on average having weaker opponents favors the Sens.

They also have two games against eachother…the last of which is the last game of the season for the Sens, and the 2nd to last for the Sabres. These two games will likely be huge - a potential 8-point swing depending on the winners….so far, the Sabres are 0-3-1 against the Sens, and have historically been terrible against them over the last 4 years. There is no way the players are not aware of this, and the fans dread games against the Sens. Advantage: Ottawa.

Momentum: - The Sabres lost a 12 point lead over the Senators while they went 3-5-2 in their last ten, and 3-7-3 in their last 13. Meanwhile, the Sens recently won 14 out of 16, and 11 in a row. The good news for the Sabres - two weeks off does a lot to kill momentum, especially the Sens riding a hot young, goaltender. However, you still have to give a slight edge to the Sens here..if the Sabres start out of the break losing a few, there’s no telling how bad it’ll get.

My statistics says the Sabres should get 27 more points this season, while the Sens get 22 points…which would have Buffalo finishing with 102 and Ottawa with 98. The fact is, one team will go down the stretch hotter than the other. Which will it be? If I HAD to bet, I would say Ottawa will get it by virtue of the two head-to-head match-ups. Either way, there’s a lot of hockey left to play before the division is decided. We’ll know the answer in 39 days.

The Canadians clearly outplayed the US for about 45 minutes of that game - the exception being the first 5 minutes of the game, and the first 10 minutes of the 3rd period. Overall, the US better took advantage of bounces and deflections, and Ryan Miller played a stronger game than Martin Broduer, and the result was a #1 seed for the US.

The game immediately afterwards was touted in the US as the “biggest US upset since ‘Miracle on Ice’”. Comparing the two is patently ridiculous…while Canada outweighs the US in superstars by a 12 to 4 margin, their are six teams in this race that can be legitamate medal contenders with the US being one of them. Considering that the US networks could barely bother to SHOW the game…it was stuck on MSNBC in standard definition where most people had to search to find it while the network showed its 200th hour of figure skating…its amazing how fast they jumped on it as an “event”.

The fact is the win was huge for the US in that it slotted them in as the #1 seed, setting them up for a match against either Switzerland or Belarus to make it to the final four teams. Meanwhile the Canadians have an extra game against Germany (which they should win handily) before playing the Russian team. (It actually seems terrible that one of those two teams won’t be in the final four, but that’s the roll of the dice.) That game should be as good as this one, if not better. What are the odds of us seeing Thomas Vokoun taking the slot in net for that one? His potential as possible “home-town hero” after Brodeur’s mediocre play should be a given, right?

Seeing as this IS a Sabres blog, I would be remiss in commenting on Ryan Miller’s play. He obviously played great, though got lots of help from the boys in front of him too. Some great saves, but somehow his style always makes it seem Some Sabres fans are worried of the affect of these extra games will have on his ability to succeed in goal for the Sabres. But playing and winning in this environment can only make Ryan Miller better. If he can play this well on the world’s biggest stage, he can certainly win in the Stanley Cup playoffs…and that’s what REALLY matters to me.

One last comment - the ranking system now puts Canada and the USA on OPPOSITE sides of the bracket, meaning that success of both teams could result in a rematch for the gold. How huge a game would THAT be. It’s turns out we will be in Canada next weekend…I guess I should find a bar to enjoy the game if that’s the case.

- The Defensive play, which looked so sharp early in the season, has gotten really sloppy. Boston had way too many scoring chances. Miller made some plain awesome saves, as well as got a few lucky breaks. (One save he was lying on the ice thinking he was covering the puck, and it was instead about a foot beside him. Luckily no-one on the Bruins noticed.
- Their offensive effort had the same problem it often does…lots of pucks going to the net, but not enough PLAYERS going to the net. They also had the other failing that happens a lot, in that they are outworked in the corners by the Bruins.
- Though they played decent in the opening minutes, when they went down by 2 goals, they look lifeless for much of the first period, with the fourth line (Gaustad-Mair-Ellis) showing the only signs of life.
- A goal on a 5-on-3 in the 2nd sparked some life, and the Sabres played strong through much of the 2nd.
- I thought they would come out strong in the third period, but though they had a few bursts early, they looked worse as the period went on. At the end, it looked like the Bruins were trying to win in regulation, while all the Sabres were doing is not to lose.
- Another great job on the PK for the team, especially killing a full two minutes in OT. The penalty in OT prevented them from really getting any momentum.
- Whiel Tukka Rask played a good game, the fact the Sabres had 42 shots makes his night misleading. Now, he did a good job of grabbing pucks and not allowing rebounds, but the Sabres only had about 4 quality scoring chances in the game, and the Myers goal was not one of them.
- Define Irony - both Boston goals were scored by Daniel Paille, who was traded to the Bruins early in the season. He had 7 goals on the year, and now had 9.
- Another shoot-out loss. These guys stink on the shoot-out, and Miller is not having a good year in the shoot-out either.

With two games left until the break, things are not looking good. They have now dropped into a tie with Ottawa, though still having 2 games in hand. They have two more games before the Olympic Break…the first in Carolina against a team that’s playing their best hockey of the season, followed by a match-up in Buffalo against the Sharks that I give the Sabres about a 20 % chance of winning. Meanwhile, Ottawa has 3 games before the break…at home against the Caps, and away at Detroit and the Islanders. It’s quite realistic that the Sabres are in 5th in the conference come Sunday.

I hope the Sabres are looking for a trade. This team has a lot of good pieces in place right now, but is not good enough to take a run at the cup. Possibly the right trade could get them there. I don’t expect to see much of anything…Darcy Reiger does not make big trades, especially not at the deadline.

In other notes, six teams were announced today to start next season in Europe, and none of them are the Sabres. Thank goodness.

I can stop there, I answered the question. But, this wouldn’t be much of a blog without a longer answer.

For those not paying attention, the Sabres, who three weeks ago had a very large cushion in the division. (8 points over Boston, and 12 over Ottawa) have seen a semi-slide on there part (4-4-2 in their last ten) and a super-hot streak from Ottawa (9 wins in a row) really tighten up the race for the division. Ottawa now sits just 5 points back in the Division, though the Sabres have two games in hand. Meanwhile, Boston has collapsed, making this Division a two-horse race.

On top of that, the Sabres tend to play poorly against Ottawa, and have never beaten them consistently since the lockout, the exception being the 2006 playoff series that they took in 5 games. So far this year, they are 0-2-1 against Ottawa, and that was much earlier in the season when Ottawa was playing poorly.

So, though this is not a must-win, it is probably the most important game the Sabres have played this season to date. A regulation loss here puts Ottawa 3 points back, while the Sabres win puts them up by 7. Since Ottawa has six more games before the Olympic break, and the Sabres have five, the Sabres winning this game would likely keep them in the division lead going into the Olympics while still having 3 games in hand.

Really though, I am not going to be that worried about a loss, as long as the effort and play are there tonight. I really don’t think that Ottawa has suddenly “figured it out”, they are simply riding a hot streak and a hot goalie. I would rather see them get hot in January than in April.

And, if you have to come into a game against a club that has won 9 in a row, this is how you want it. Ottawa has had almost 4 days off since they played Saturday afternoon…a huge break at this point in the season. While they will certainly be aware of the importance of this game, the recent hot-streak and domination of the Sabres could still result in a “easy win” mindset. In addition, winning streaks have to end eventually. This team has the longest winning streak in Sens history, and they are definitely NOT the best Sens team in history.

How do the Sabres win? The Sabres need to come out hard, play solid defense, and get the Senators back on their heels early. They should come to play and play hard. They frequently do not battle hard in the corners against the Senators, or at least not hard enough to control the play.

Since it’s in the division, I wanted to mention the Leafs trade for Paneuf and Giguere. I think these were excellent trades for the leafs. Yes, they gave up some decent hockey players, but got a quality defenseman in return, and especially a true #1 goaltender. Yes, he hasn’t had a very good year playing in the back-up role, but Giguere is only 32 and his save percentage over the last two years in 0.920. He is a huge upgrade in goal over Toskala and the “Monster”. I think that trade alone made the Leafs a whole lot better. Maybe Toronto can even win a game against the Sabres this season. (Currently at 5-0 against the Leafs.)

The Sabres were not the better team tonight. Defensively, there were more mistakes made. Offensively, they were probably on-par, but that’s not saying much. Miller was very solid, though the 1 goal he allowed was not without some fault on his shoulders. They looked a little worn down towards the end, but that’s perhaps a blame of flying back from Vancouver Monday night for a Wednesday game. Anyways, I will gladly cede the Devils their 1 point if it means the Sabres get 2.

Next up are the Bruins, who are 15 points back of the Sabres and now have no chance of catching them for the division. They are in the logjam of 8 teams currently within 1 point of eachother for 6 through 13. (Just imagine, if the Bruins tank going out, they could end up with two top 10 draft picks! Thanks Maple Leafs!)

The Sabres have a 6-3-3 record on the month now, with 2 games to play, but I am going to look at the remaining two games of the month along with the 7 they have in February. The Sabres have 9 games in the next 18 days, with only 2 days off once, and 1 set of back-to-backs. Four of those games are against playoff caliber teams, and 5 against lower ranked teams. let’s look at them each:

New Jersey (Today): New Jersey is struggling a bit of late, losing 5 of their last 7. Buffalo hasn’t beaten NJ at home in the last two seasons, but I expect them to come out strong tonight after that road trip. (Hopefully they have had time to recover from the travel.) There are no “must wins” yet at this point in the season, but this would be a good one if they hope to contend for the #2 seed.

Boston (2 times - 1/29 and 2/9 at home): Boston is on a down slide at the moment, and the Sabres better do what they can to take advantage of that fact. They’ve been playing well against the Bruins the last year, though are 0-1-1 against them this seasson. Should get at least three points in these games.

Pittsburgh (2/1) - Met Pittsburgh here twice, getting 3 of 4 points. They typically don’t play well in Pittsburgh though, so I would expect this one to be a loss.

Ottawa (2/3) - This will be an interesting game and could be VERY interesting depending on what happens over the next 7 days. Ottawa’s got two games between now and then, and the Sabres have three, so worse case the game could be being played for the Division lead. Let’s hope it’s not that bad, but still a “four point swing” game against an opponent they historically play badly against. (This season 0-2-1 against the Sens.) However, they can’t lose them ALL, can they? A long rest for Ottawa cools their heels, I predict a Sabres win here.

Carolina (twice - 2/5 @ home and 2/11 away): A team the Sabres seem to play pretty well, and which they beat handily earlier in the season. I can only pick 2 wins for the Sabres here.

Columbus (2/6) - A place the Sabres historically play badly, and a likely spot for Lalime to play, a bad combination which has me expecting loss.

San Jose (2/13) - Last game before the Olympic break - they just played the Sharks out west. Assuming no disaster in the next 8 games, I would expect Miller to get rested for this game as well, and would be shocked if they come out with a win.

So, I got them at 5-3-1 for the next 9 games. That record would likely hold them in first in the Division, as Ottawa can’t continue to win at this pace. (Though if they do, don’t they deserve the division?)