Then, the next night it was off to Pittsburgh, and the Sabres played it pretty tough for 50 minutes, but crumbled at the end. I don’t know if the legs just gave out (3 games in 4 nights), but Pittsburgh went from 2-1 down with 10 minutes to play to a 5-2 win. And just like that, it feels like the season is starting to slide. 1-3-1 in the last 5 games, 3-5-2 in the last 10 is just not getting the job done. Though part of it is not scoring enough goals, the bigger problem is sloppy defensive play. You start to get yourself in a hole early, as they did against Columbus, your opponent can then focus on defense and shut you down…that’s what a good opponent will do.

But…it’s not the end of the world. The Sabres are still overall 9-5-3 and in sixth in the Eastern Conference. But they have to turn it around, and have to win some games and they have to do it soon…you do not want to be the team struggling to get back into a playoff spot - you want to be the one scrapping for the best seed all year. But let’s face it, no team wins most of their games. To make the playoffs, you need about 92 points - that’s just 1.12 points per game. A top tier team might get 110 points, or 1.34 points per game - so that’s your target - 1.12 - 1.34 points per game. The Sabres right now have 1.23 points per game - which would give them 101 at the end of the season…this needs to continue.

So far in November, they are 3-3-1, a pretty mediocre start to the month. They have six games left and no cakewalk… The way I see it - eight points in those six games would be a good acheivement, but it needs to start with the first three next week - a game in Boston after 3 days of practice and then home games against Philly and the Isles - two teams that have yet to figure it out this season. They need to wake up and play well in this stretch. The second 3 in 4 during Thanksgiving weekend is brutal - Boston, Pittsburgh and Montreal..all teams ahead of them in the standings…making it even more imperative they get back into good habits this week.

A few players are out right now - Ales Kotalik has a pulled hamstring that will have him out of the line-up for a couple weeks, and of course Tim Conolly is day-to-day. I hope that he can be back at least by Friday, because I really like the way the Hecht-Conolly-Pominville line has been playing and would like to see them back together.

So, the Sabres are struggling and the Bruins are flying high - yet I have a feeling that this next game is going to go in the Sabres favor. The Bruins are a good team - getting excellent goal-tending…but I don’t think they are good enough to sustain the 9-1-1 rate they are going. The Sabres will likely see Manny Fernandez in goal, as he’s already beaten the Sabres twice this season. But I think the Sabres will play their best game this month so far, and it will be enough to get it done.

So, Sabres fans - let’s not panic yet…let’s see what the next three games holds - then it might be time to panic.

What to think of Friday’s game against the Blue Jackets…the Sabres should be favored in this game. I am only nervous because the Sabres are notoriously bad at handling Columbus, with only 2 wins in 8 games in their history. My guess is we will see Lalime start, as Lindy will probably want to save Miller for the Pittsburgh game on Saturday night (with 3 games in 4 nights, we better see Miller rest one of them). Columbus is having an OK season, with Rick Nash struggling of late, though scoring on Wednesday. They’ve also gone through 4 goaltenders, though Pascal Leclaire should be back tonight. My gut tells me this could easily be a loss, but the Sabres have been playing better of late (if you ignore the Bruins game last Saturday) so I am going to go against my gut and call this one a win.

Saturday’s game against the Penguins could be a wild one - the Pens have played in two high scoring affairs this week, winning them both. Regardless of their new “defensive” mode they claim to play, they have been more than willing to open it up recently. However, that is not the way to go against a team like Pittsburgh, as a shootout style game will favor the Pens. On a 3rd game in 4 nights and playing the night before, I think you will see a losing effort on Saturday, so I am picking the weekend at 1-1. (My pick record stands at 9-5-1.)

1st period: Five minutes in it’s all Sabres, with St Louis only getting one decent shot. First Sabres goal…St Louis coughed up the puck in the neutral zone, and Mair ripped one from the blue line over Legace’s shoulder.

2nd goal, connoly scored, well really the goalie/defense for St. Louis put it in the net. The Blues call a time-out. The Sabres come right back and score again when the Blues leave Pominville right out in front, though Legace should have had it. 3-0 Sabres and the Blues are pulling the goalie. This is starting to get out of hand.

13:00 mark - Kotalik in all alone and he trys to pass it..doh!

9:00 - Vanek just out-worked two defenders that he had no right getting by for a scoring chance, I don’t think I’ve put it quite this league, but their is probably not a player I would rather have on my team this year than Thomas Vanek. He is typically making 2-3 great plays every night.

St. Louis is coming back playing better defense. Ouch, and they just scored! From sort of behind the net…not a good play by the defender, or Miller. Peters is in a second fight, he’s gonna be worn out. 3-1 end of the first

2nd period - A much more even period, though i would say the Sabres are leading the play slightly, but St. Louis got the goal making it 3-2. Not really a bad play by anyone in particular, more hard work by the Blues. This is a little scary in that the Sabres were up 3-0, now it’s a 1 goal game. I guess it’s good that the league seems to have opened up this season, but it sucks that a 3 goal lead doesn’t feel safe. At times, it seems like the period is getting too wide open. Mason has made some great saves in the period. One on a Vanek breakaway.

Overall, I like how the Sabres defense is playing, not giving St. Louis a ton of second chances nor many breakaways. End of two, still 3-2.

3rd period - BLues come on strong, but Tallinder scores on a screened shot that Mason never saw…that’s a bit of a relief.

Blues score again…just grinding it out. And it comes down to a real nail-biter…especially when you are up 3-0, you don’t want to lose it…and they didn’t. Final score 4-3. Overall, the Sabres played pretty well in this one.

In particular, I’m going to be critical of the choice of starting Miller this game…has Lindy already thrown out his model of giving his star goalie time to rest. Yes, Lalime had a bad game in his last outing, but Miller’s had some bad ones since, and you need to let Lalime play. There’s a bunch of weeks in a row here where the Sabres play 3 games in 4 nights - Lalime should be in goal for one of those games every week.

Otherwise, it comes down to playing sound defense…the same reason they lost the Thrashers came hurt them in the Boston game. If your going to beat Boston right now, you have to play their game.

Coming up next, a struggling St. Louis Blues team comes into Buffalo on Wednesday…the Blues are 1-6-1 in their last 8 games after a 4-1 start, and though they started out scoring like crazy are now allowing goals at a huge clip, allowing 5 or more goals in their last 4 games. The Sabres will have 3 days off to work on their defense, and if they get back to the basics of their earlier play, they should be ready for the Blues. My personal record of 8-5-1 is at stake, so I’m calling this one for the Sabres.

The first period started off slow, with it looking like the Sabres were trying to get there legs under them, and they fell down 0-1 early. But they then dominated the last 7 minutes of play in the period, and scored on a 5-3 PP, where they actually had five forwards on the ice at one time.

The second period was as wild a 20 minutes of hockey as I’ve seen in a while, resulting in my comment to my wife from the title…It looks like we were back in 2006. The play went up and down the ice, with lots of quality scoring chances on either side of the ice. Both teams scored two goals, and the Sabres came out of the period ahead by a goal. The first Atlanta goal of the period should NOT have gone in. Scott Little had a near break-away, and was pulled down by the Buffalo defender (Lydman I think, but I couldn’t be sure) and a delayed penalty was called…Little pushed the puck at the net and it went under Miller. Bad goal, but it came from poor defense. The third Atlanta goal happened similar when Miller made the initial save, but the rebound went in front of the net where Rivet did not have his man tied up enough (Perhaps he didn’t see the rebound coming.) and an easy shot went in.

I have to comment though, Thomas Vanek is rapidly becoming the best player on the team, at one point during an Atlanta power play, he took away the puck from a Thrasher in the neutral zone, and worked his ass off to bring the puck into the Atlanta zone past two defenders, and drew a penalty. It eventually led to the Sabres fourth goal, which was on the power play.

The irony of the game was the third period was even better for the Sabres…they allowed practically no scoring chances, and spent most of the period in the Thrashers Zone. Unfortunately, they allowed the game-tying goal on a power play when they couldn’t clear the puck from the front of the net.

Once the game went to overtime, it is of course a toss-up. Iin this case, Derek Roy was called for hooking and again Miller made the initial stop and the defenders didn’t clear the puck when they had the chance. Of course, a penalty in overtime is usually a loss…I know this will make me sound like a homer, but the call was pretty iffy…to me, refs should be a little more cautious before blowing the whistle in overtime, as a penalty here ofter decides the game.

So, while Miller did let in one bad goal, I’m pinning this loss on the defense…most of the goals were due to poor defensive play, and the Sabres should’ve walked away from this one with a win…the first loss of the season I can say that about.

Oh - to answer what they did - Peters and Stafford sat out the game…Kaleta and Sekera were both in the line-up…Connoly also played, so they must’ve sent Ellis down to Portland, assuming he clears waivers.

The team is already in Boston for a game against the red-hot Bruins - the first of three this month. I would hope they can take 2 of 3 from this team…but I don’t know that they will and I am expecting a loss tonight. I think we will see Lalime in goal, and a better defensive responsibility from the Sabres. Expect a low scoring game in this one.

Especially when you look at what’s going on down in Portland. Nathan Gerbe is tearing up the AHL, with 10 goals and 13 points in 9 games, and Mark Mancari isn’t far behind with 7 goals and a whopping 17 points in 9 games. Production like that will easily result in a call-up to the big club should the need arise. This enforces the fact that Ellis is an extra player that filled a role that the Sabres don’t need right now. If he makes it to the minors, great. If he gets picked up elsewhere, he can hopefully get a full-time spot on a roster.

I can’t think of a minor-leaguer I’ve been more eager to see make his way up to Buffalo than Nathan Gerbe.

Again, I am picking the Sabres tomorrow night. I will have a full review of the game when I get home.

- Seemed like the Sabres dominated the 1st period with NJ taking some penalties, while the opposite occurred in the 2nd period where Ryan Miller had to work a bit.
- Sabres had most of their shots in the 1st, but that may have been because they focused on defense.
- Two games in a row with strong defensive play leads to back-to-back shutouts for Ryan Miller after allowing 5 goals (many soft) the game before.

I am very encouraged by the last two games, that after two very poor efforts the Sabres had gotten back to what they did so well the first 8 games, and it resulted in two wins.

For the first time, I didn’t get around to making a prediction for Monday’s game, so I guess that one won’t count in my personal stats…leaving me at a mark of 7-4-1 (the 1 is for not picking the outcome). Friday they play an Atlanta team that is someone between bad and awful. The Thrashers will have played the night before while the Sabres will have 3 days rest, and it will be on home ice. I will be at the game - my third of the season to date. The Thrashers handed the Sabres their first loss of the season only two weeks ago, and I don’t think the Sabres will be underestimating them. I expect the Sabres to open agressively, and expect another one in the win column.

However, I suspect a loss will be brewing (bruin? - sorry couldn’t resist) on Saturday, with back-to-back games, the second against a Boston team that is playing very good right now. (Looking at the Boston website - The Bruins have ice girls now? When do we get ice girls?)

Finally, while this is obviously not a political blog - I wanted to say that it is election night in the US, and here’s hoping that whichever side wins - they handle things with much more competence than the previous administration.

1st period - that’s how it’s done. Great goal early from Vanek, and an amazing goal from Pominville late. Vanek, Roy and Pominville all scored, the guys who should be the scoring leaders. Let’s keep it that way. Good forechecking going on is giving them the advantage in this period.

2nd period - Hmmmm, in a way it’s been all Washington at least in shots, but it doesn’t look like they are dominating the Sabres. Some great, great goaltending by Ryan Miller, especially on a long 5 on 3 for the caps. Thumbs down for Connoly’s first game back, he’s coughing up the puck every time he touches it.

late 2nd - Holy Cow, another awesome goal by Vanek - he’s got 11 so far! 4-0 Sabres

3rd period - I don’t know if I’ve said this yet this year, but you gotta love Andrej Sekera. He is one of the best defenseman on the ice and looks great on the PP. (Though the PP is the one negative tonight - it has not looked very good - partly due to Connoly’s lousy play.) I think they are 1 for 7 now.

9:16 PM - Paille to Kaleta to Paille - How Schmoly! Two great passes from those guys to make it 5-0. I think the Capitals are in trouble this year…not due to lack of offense, but Theodore was not the best choice. THey should’ve showed Huet the money.

9:28 PM - Game over and no complaints out of this one…though I don’t think the caps played a very good game except in the 2nd period. First star for Miller for a great effort. 2nd star Vanek. 3rd star’s a little harder…maybe Pominville?

The team needs to get back to the basics that they started the season out doing - good defense and puck control. I would hope they know this, and start implementing it tonight. Tim Connoly may be back, but his skills are not what’s needed. There are still two very critical players out Jochen Hecht and Craig Rivet. I beleive as these players health goes, so will the Sabres. Both should be back within the next 3-5 games.

I actually picked them to start out 6-4 or 5-4-1, and I wasn’t that far off (1 or 2 points short), so I’m now going to try and divine the month of November: The Sabres play 13 games in November, 8 of them at home. While not all opponents are easy, (Washington, Pittsburgh and Montreal are in the mix) they are also playing teams like Atlanta, Philadelphia and the Islanders. Most critical of all is three games against Boston, who are continuing to prove that they can win games while not scoring goals. I would like to see them get through the month at 7-4-2 or come out of the month with 30 points total. (They are now at 14.) If they are at 30 points after 23 games they will be well on their way to a playoff spot.

Tonight’s game, I feel that they cannot come out as bad as the last two games. Washington is a good opponent, with some fantastic players (though Ovechkin is not here tonight), but a bit of a questionable defense. I think Buffalo will come out of the gate strong and will hang on to win this one.